Kallas this week put herself forward as negotiator for the EU on ending the war in Ukraine, at a time when the union is still defining its position in any talks.

The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy rejected out of hand Russian leader Vladimir Putin's proposal for former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as European negotiator, due to his coziness with the Kremlin. This has included his having been a high-level lobbyist for Russian state-owned firms.

"I have not seen Kaja Kallas at the negotiating table, but I think she is not at that level. If everyone already considered her to be that authority, then we would not be looking for a candidate," Simson told "Esimene stuudio."

Simson was Estonia's European Commissioner, holding the energy portfolio from 2019-2024 and before that was a government minister with the Center Party. Kallas was Reform Party leader and prime minister of Estonia until she took on the EU foreign policy chief role in 2024.

Simson: I can't understand lack of Karis presidential bid support

As for this autumn's presidential election, Simson said she cannot understand why current incumbent Alar Karis has so far not been backed for a second term. While much has been said about wanting a diplomatic president of the so-called "our man/woman in international diplomacy" type, with the implication being that Karis is not such a figurehead, the Estonian head of state must also be strong on domestic politics, Simson said.

Simson declined to answer if she would be seeking a presidential candidacy.

Estonia's presidents are in the first instance elected via three Riigikogu ballots, with the process heading to the regional electoral college next if that draws a blank.

A two-thirds majority is needed in the 101-seat Riigikogu, meaning support from the Reform Party, with 39 seats including those MPs who vote with the party but are not in its faction, will be needed to get a head of state elected.

Reform's rating has been in freefall in recent months, however, and is now behind that of Isamaa, the Center Party, the Social Democrats (SDE), and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) – all of them in opposition.

Simson's assessment of the decline of the Reform Party is fallout from its performance at the 2023 Riigikogu elections, when the party was headed by Kallas, who was returned as prime minister. Simson called this level of support – close to 30 percent – "excessive." Reform polled at 12 percent in this week's Norstat survey.

As for next spring's Riigikogu elections, Simson said a tri-partite coalition would be preferable, though a bi-partite one, like the current Reform-Eesti 200 administration, is more likely. In that case, Simson suggested a coalition made up of Center and Isamaa, who are already in office together in Tallinn.

At the same time, the nationwide situation is one of practically all the parties being ready to be bedfellows with each other – regionally speaking, even the right-wing EKRE and the left-of-center SDE.

"In every corner of Estonia there are coalitions where you have some local EKRE member and some local Social Democrat together, not to mention the Reform Party and the Center Party somewhere in between," Simson remarked.

The "Esimene stuudio" interview also touched on the situation in the Middle East. Simson said the main beneficiaries of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran have been American oil producers. This followed a situation of oversupply, which has been "rectified" by the war and the general closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

On the other hand, the U.S. is more susceptible to a Strait closure than Europe, Simson said. The EU and aligned European states can shore themselves up with the fact that their fuel prices include various taxes that act as a buffer, she said.

"The end consumer — the person filling up their car at the gas station — feels the pain much more dramatically than Europeans do," Simson added, in the year the U.S. midterms take place.

The Iran war could cost U.S. President Donald Trump his majority in the House of Representatives at the midterms, she said: The side that brings higher fuel prices ahead of those elections usually gets penalized by the American electorate, in other words.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!