Ossinovski said on Vikerraadio that, in his view, the Reform Party, Eesti 200 and the Social Democrats all want to elect the president in the Riigikogu.

"EKRE clearly does not. And the Center Party and Isamaa seem more interested in enjoying themselves in the Electoral College. In staging some kind of anti-government campaign in order to improve their position ahead of the parliamentary elections (in 2007 – ed.)," Ossinovski said.

He recalled predicting several months ago that the presidential election process would once again be difficult and chaotic. He pointed to the 2016 and 2021 presidential elections when the candidates initially discussed ultimately did not become president.

"It seems this time things are heading in the same direction and there are two reasons for that. One is the proximity of the parliamentary elections, which will certainly leave its mark on the process. The second reason is the shrinking space for political agreements between parties in general. Trust between parties is extraordinarily low and has steadily worsened over the years. And since the constitution requires very broad support in the Riigikogu to elect a president — 68 votes — that is exceptionally difficult in the current political culture and situation."

According to Ossinovski, there are several reasons why trust between parties has declined. First, there has been a generational change within the parties, resulting in less long-term cooperation experience between people.

"As a result, there may be less understanding that at certain moments, fighting only for your own party's interests is not actually in that same party's interests. Sometimes it is worth agreeing to a suboptimal outcome for yourself in order to move forward as a whole," Ossinovski said.

As a second reason, he pointed to decisions made with a very short-term perspective, which he said are reflected in the Reform Party's behavior in recent years.

"Let's remember how [Prime Minister Kristen] Michal threw the Social Democrats out of the government, thereby pushing away his natural ally on certain strategic issues. We also remember last summer's dance around Tallinn's city government where there was an effort to improve political positioning a couple of months before the elections. And the latest maneuvers by the Reform Party in the context of the presidential election show the same thing again."

According to Ossinovski, the situation is actually simple. Regardless of whether people like the Reform Party or not, it is the prime minister's party and holds a blocking minority in the Riigikogu when it comes to presidential elections.

"It is impossible to elect a president without the Reform Party and therefore they also bear responsibility for putting together a process that makes it possible to elect a president. I am not saying there have not been sincere attempts, but in reality no effective format has been proposed."

Ossinovski was also critical of Isamaa and the Center Party, whose plan, he said, is straightforward: the government — and especially the Reform Party — is to blame for all of Estonia's problems.

"As a result, every opportunity must be used, no matter what kind of maneuver it may be at the moment, to reinforce that message to the Estonian public. And that means using every chance to get one over on the Reform Party. Which in turn makes the Reform Party cautious about any kind of attempts because they know that at least some of the other parties are not acting sincerely in this context."

Ossinovski said he would be surprised if Isamaa and the Center Party were to say that there are three candidates and they are prepared to support whichever one receives the broadest backing from the parties.

"I think the game is moving in the direction where the Reform Party-backed candidate would be made to fail in order to show that the Reform Party is incapable."

Ossinovski said he believes Kristen Michal remembers the 2016 presidential election very well and will not repeat the mistakes the Reform Party made at the time under Taavi Rõivas' leadership.

"Michal was a member of that government and a close adviser to him. The Reform Party floated many different candidates, there were public tours and debates. But the Reform Party itself could not choose between its three candidates. Not to mention telling its partners: let's agree on some kind of process that does not necessarily have to mean supporting the Reform Party's candidate. And how did it all end? I think enough has been learned from that that the Reform Party will not try to put forward a Reform Party candidate. That they are genuinely trying to find candidates from outside the party."

However, Ossinovski was critical of the moves Prime Minister Michal made last week when he floated Kersti Kaljulaid's name as a possible presidential candidate.

"By the following evening, that candidate had already been shot down by his own party. People said first that they had heard nothing about it and second that they were not exactly eager to support that person for president. That makes everyone else who could theoretically become president very cautious if candidates are already being burned in a single day."

Ossinovski returned to the issue of the lack of trust between parties, which he said makes it impossible for parties to act rationally on the matter.

"Let's remember the incident where a message exchange between representatives of the Reform Party and the Social Democrats appeared in the press. What does that tell us? That it is very difficult to have delicate conversations when you may later end up reading about them in the newspaper."

According to Ossinovski, there used to be a principle that if you wanted to talk to people, there was some level of confidentiality. But now, when things turned sour for one party for whatever reason, the other was effectively thrown under the bus.

"I dare say the Social Democrats started this process in good faith. We truly hoped it would be possible to elect a good president for Estonia in the Riigikogu. There is actually no shortage of good candidates. And considering the geopolitical situation we are living in today, it is extraordinarily important that we have a strong head of state. But right now, it seems that with every new move coming from the Reform Party, reaching an agreement becomes increasingly difficult. Still, in the end Estonia will elect a president. We always have and will this time as well."

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