Argo Ideon: Putin does not want his weakness exposed on May 9
A lavish celebration of Russia's Victory Day in the fifth year of the war and amid growing economic hardship could provoke public discontent. The Kremlin is trying to avoid any incident that might reveal the weakness or vulnerability of Vladimir Putin's regime, writes Argo Ideon.
The May 9 parade in Moscow is an event that attracts enormous interest every year outside Russia. What weapons will be shown this time? Which world leaders will attend? What will Putin do?
But once the event is over, everything deflates like a punctured balloon. There is usually nothing exciting or meaningful to report. A few shots of Red Square make it into the news broadcasts to mark Russia's most important holiday.
This has been the pattern for years, even decades. The last time anything truly noteworthy happened in connection with the Moscow parade was in 2015 when during a rehearsal the new T‑14 Armata tank stalled in the middle of Red Square and signaled that it needed assistance. The vehicle was eventually restarted and left under its own power.
Now, 11 years later, that same Russian "next‑generation" tank has still not properly entered mass production and plays no role in the war in Ukraine. The explanation given by Sergey Chemezov, CEO of the Russian state corporation Rostec, was the tank's high cost.
Last year, the hype surrounding the Moscow parade was at least somewhat understandable as it marked a major anniversary: 80 years since the end of World War II in Europe. Leaders from China, Brazil, Egypt, Venezuela and other countries were present — 29 high‑level guests in total.
This year, minimalism is the defining feature of Moscow's Victory Day parade. It is a small‑scale event in which military hardware does not participate at all. Red Square will see no tanks, missile systems or intercontinental ballistic missiles, which have traditionally formed the backbone of Russia's demonstration of military power. The absence of rumbling military vehicles is meant to be slightly offset by flyovers of Russian Air Force fighter jets, leaving trails of smoke in the colors of the national flag.
But there is another, far more ominous reason to keep an eye on the sky: fear that Ukraine might attack Moscow with drones or missiles during Saturday's parade is the main narrative surrounding this year's event. Ukraine has already gained a significant advantage as the panicked fear of drones makes the leaders of mighty Russia look ridiculous.
And not only in memes showing Putin inside a "protective" iron cage or drone nets stretched over Red Square. The Kremlin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov also appears absurd when he claims that the "Kyiv regime" has taken a terrorist path and that all possible measures therefore have to be taken to reduce the threat.
Many reports coming in from Russia's regions sound like something out of absurdist theater. Because of heightened danger, many places are canceling both local parades and the "Immortal Regiment" march — the latter being a procession in which residents carry photos or banners of relatives who took part in World War II.
For example, on Wednesday a message from central Russia, from the Oryol region, was broadcast via Governor Andrei Klychkov, stating that although extensive organizational work had been done for the holiday, it was necessary, in the interest of residents' safety and the protection of life, to give up the parade, the march and the evening fireworks.
"Klychkov asked the Oryol city administration to move the planned events to parks, green areas and boulevards so that people can relax in a 'distributed format,' without gathering in large crowds," RIA Novosti reported.
Based on information published in the public media, the Telegram news channel Astra has counted that as of May 6, at least 15 Russian regions had announced the complete cancellation of May 9 Victory Day events. No public events are being organized in the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia either.
In contrast, St. Petersburg is planning to hold an unprecedented event called the "Immortal Flotilla," in which sailing boats and motorboats will go out to sea bearing the names or images of World War II–era ships. "On board will be participants in the special military operation [the war in Ukraine], representatives of the clergy and children with health limitations," Russian media report.
A military parade is also scheduled to take place in St. Petersburg, but the only vehicles rolling past the crowds will be vintage ones. At Saturday's "Immortal Regiment" event in the city, participants are forbidden to bring water, vodka or food. Power banks and flags of other countries are also banned.
So what is the real background to the cancellation or restriction of events marking Russia's largest annual holiday? It is clear that Ukraine is attacking oil refineries and military facilities, but civilians who want to commemorate family members lost in the last century are not the targets.
One logical reason is the Moscow authorities' fear that a lavish celebration in the fifth year of the war, as economic difficulties deepen, could provoke public discontent. Russia's leadership prefers to avoid any incidents that might expose the weakness or vulnerability of Vladimir Putin's regime.
It is likely for this same reason that warnings have been issued in Moscow and St. Petersburg that mobile data services will be shut down during the events. This digital blackout steers people toward consuming the official version of May 9 celebrations — though it has not previously helped against Ukrainian drone attacks.
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