Ratings: Isamaa slump in support has halted
A fall in support for the opposition Isamaa party has halted, according to a recent poll.
Isamaa's rating had been declining for the past month, but this has now bottomed out, according to the survey issued Wednesday, conducted by pollsters Norstat on behalf of the Institute for Social Studies.
In the latest Norstat poll, 26.1 percent of respondents said they backed Isamaa, with the Center Party, also in opposition, close behind at 22.2 percent. A third opposition party, the Social Democrats (SDE), polled at 14.1 percent according to Norstat, while the fourth opposition party with Riigikogu seats, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), was only a shade behind at 13.6 percent.
The senior coalition party, Reform, polled at 12.7 percent, while the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed's rating was 6.1 percent according to the latest Norstat poll. This is above the 5 percent threshold required to win seats in a given electoral district, under Estonia's electoral system.
Reform's coalition partner, Eesti 200, polled at 1.6 percent, not only below the 5 percent threshold but also below the 2 percent needed at an election to qualify for state support.
None of the above changes were seismic, according to Norstat.
"In general, party support percentages did not change significantly over the week. Support for Isamaa, which holds the leading position, is somewhat higher compared to last week, and thus their roughly month-long downward trend has come to a halt," Norstat commented in its press release.
Center and SDE in second and third place in particular have seen virtually no change in their ratings on the week.
A total of 14.3 percent of respondents backed the coalition parties, compared with 76 percent for the opposition parties represented at the Riigikogu.
Norstat conducts its surveys on a weekly basis, aggregating the results over the preceding four weeks. The latest period is from March 30 to April 26. A total of 4,000 Estonian citizens aged 18 and older were quizzed during that time.
Norstat says it weights its sample along various key sociodemographic indicators, and conducts its poll both online and over the phone – the latter group is the larger of the two.
Norstat also excludes those responses which did not express any party support, to make the results as close to an election as possible. Norstat claims a margin of error in direct proportion to the size of a party by support – so, for instance, results for Isamaa as most-supported party come with a claimed margin of error of +/- 1.6 percent, compared with +/- 0.46 percent for Eesti 200 as the least supported of the major parties at present.
The next direct elections in Estonia are to the Riigikogu, in March 2027. Ahead of that come September's presidential elections, which require a degree of party consensus, to obtain the two-thirds majority needed at the 101-seat Riigikogu, to elect a new head of state.
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Editor: Andrew Whyte
