Retail trade enterprises turnover stood at €975 million, the agency reports, a rise of 7 percent.

The main driver of this increase came from enterprises engaged in the retail sale of automotive fuel, Statistics Estonia reported.

Johanna Linda Pihlak, analyst at Statistics Estonia, said turnover in this sector was up 15 percent on year to March, despite the sharp increase in fuel prices sparked by the crisis in the Middle East. In fact, crises were a driver in the rise in consumption, she said.

"One of the reasons was the uncertainty felt by consumers – fearing future price hikes, people started to stock up on fuel," Pihlak noted.

Turnover for stores selling manufactured goods rose by 10 percent over the same time frame, Statistics Estonia reported. At the same time, grocery stores' revenues continued to decline in March; the figure was down by 2 percent on the year, due to food price inflation.

"The turnover volume of grocery stores has decreased due to the rising prices of food products," Pihlak explained.

Between February and March this year, the volume of retail trade turnover grew by 15 percent. By seasonally and working-day adjusted data, turnover volume was up by 1 percent over the month.

In the first quarter of 2026 (January–March), the volume of retail trade turnover also rose by 7 percent, compared with the same quarter in 2025.

Turnover volume index is expressed as the change in the volume of sales of goods at constant prices compared with the sales in a previous period. Price indices of goods are used in the calculation of the turnover volume index.

The above data is correct as of April 29, 2026, and is based on Estonian Tax and Customs Board (MTA) VAT declaration data, and the agency compiles its reports on behalf of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications.

More detailed information is available from Statistics Estonia here and here.

From 2026, detailed data on specific retail activities will be discontinued and grouped into broader categories, Statistics Estonia says. The agency says it will still be publishing trade data under EMTAK 2008, through to 2027; registers use EMTAK 2025, which classifies by goods instead of sales channels, limiting comparability. EMTAK 2025 data 2028 weights are available.

More information on this is available here.

Classification of Economic Activities in Estonia (EMTAK) is the Estonian adapted version of the Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE). 

Economist: Latvia excise hike encouraged cross-border trade

Commenting on the results, chief economist at Luminor bank Lenno Uusküla said a significant share of the strong on-year growth in overall retail turnover was driven by a 19.3 percent rise in fuel sales in January, ahead of the current crisis in the Middle East and the result of a fuel excise hike in Latvia, which encouraged cross-border trade.

"This was linked to the rise in fuel excise in Latvia, which brought more [Latvian] businesses and individuals to refuel in Estonia. As fuel accounts for over 20 percent of total retail, this has significantly boosted overall sales," he said.

"However, seasonally adjusted fuel sales fell by 7.3 percent in March compared with February, despite the fact that, as fuel prices rose, some people and companies stocked up more," Uusküla added.

Car sales are nonetheless recovering, he noted. "At the start of last year, after the introduction of the car registration tax, car sales fell to a very low level. Now, as the situation normalizes, car sales are growing and will continue to grow, as they have not yet returned to their previous level."

Meanwhile the expected surge in supermarket sales resulting from the removal of the so-called tax hump at the start of this year did not materialize, Uusküla noted. In many cases people picked other destinations they saw as more pressing, including high heating bills during a cold winter, for the extra money in their wallets.

"Following the removal of the tax hump, the expectation was people would be taking more money into the stores, but seasonally adjusted monthly growth from January to March amounts to zero. Higher incomes in the first months went on the larger heating bills, other expenses, and savings. Statistics Estonia's data do not support the view that everyday spending has risen yet," Uusküla said.

Editor's note: This article was updated to include comment from Lenno Uusküla.

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