While male voters often plump for the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), or for Isamaa, the Center Party did much better with women voters.

When confining the results to women voters whose first language is Russian, the results are even starker: Center polled at 84 percent with this demographic, miles ahead of the next nearest party, Isamaa, at 5 percent.

ERR's Indrek Kiisler and Anvar Samost were on Friday joined by Emor's head of research, Aivar Voog, to go over the latest poll's implications.

"According to the April survey, an incredible 84 percent of Russian-speaking women support the Center Party. It's hard to even imagine — [but] basically, if you took 10 Russian-speaking women off the street anywhere in Estonia, nine of them would likely say their choice is the Center Party," Samost said.

Voog put this down to one of Center's prominent female politicians, Anastassia Kovalenko-Kõlvart, a former motorcycle racer, wife of party leader Mihhail Kõlvart, and fluent in Estonian. "She is one of the main spokespersons for the Center Party," Voog said.

Russian-speaking men voters' preferences are more diverse, Voog noted. As of April, Center rated at "just" 60 percent with this demographic, according to Kantar Emor.

Meanwhile, Center also polled better with women voters whose native language is Estonian than it did with their male contemporaries.

High-income, highly educated women would pick SDE

The latest survey found households with a very high income, by Estonian standards at least, namely over and above €1,500 per family member per month, most often prefer the Social Democratic Party (SDE). The party was supported by 24 percent of respondents in this group, with women again the driving force here, Voog said, though not nearly as dominant as Center has been with Russian-speaking women voters.

"At the same time, preferences among higher-income voters are quite evenly distributed, as three other parties follow the Social Democrats with support around 20 percent. The Social Democrats' success in this segment is primarily driven by older voters with higher education and women, whose income tends to be above average," Voog said.

"The Social Democrats have two target groups: young people and older, highly educated voters. And tending towards women. This is where the higher income comes from, as people with higher education tend to earn a bit more in Estonia," Voog noted.

EKRE has alienated men with its statements

Kiisler noted that on the whole, women voters tend to steer clear of the more radical options, meaning the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), for example, has consistently polled poorly with this gender.

Men's preferences, by contrast, are much more varied. For example, among Russian-speaking men, votes are distributed across a variety of parties, EKRE included. While EKRE's core electorate is more broadly based on men, and particularly older men, this means the party is likely to feel the pinch if this demographic starts abandoning them, Voog said.

EKRE polled at 9 percent overall in the April Emor survey, the lowest level it has seen for over a decade.

"EKRE's decline is linked to men. Their main support base still derives from older men. Something has changed there: Either EKRE's rhetoric or recent foreign policy events have influenced these men's preferences," Voog said. "A gap has emerged between the statements of EKRE's leaders and the expectations of their voters."

"If you ask people in Estonia what creates a sense of insecurity, then in previous years it was mostly issues related to prices and the economic situation. But now, since the beginning of this year, foreign policy factors have become the main concern," Voog added.

One dimension of this is the recent Hungarian elections, which saw Viktor Orbán, a firm ally of EKRE's, exit office after 16 years. This happened at a time where the mask had apparently slipped even more on Orbán's ties to the Kremlin.

"Whether all those percentages came from there or not, certainly some did. I think even for EKRE voters, the pro-Russian Viktor Orbán doesn't work. If, as an EKRE leader, you say that you would have staged a rebellion instead of Orbán, then clinging to Orbán until the last moment — and creating a link to Russia — doesn't resonate with Estonian voters," Kiisler said.

Helme said shortly after the election results that while Orbán's successor, Péter Magyar, will likely look more toward Europe, Hungary's relations with Russia will not be completely severed.

But Helme had misjudged his own party's supporters, Kiisler added. "Why does Martin Helme think his voter is pro-Russian?" Kiisler inquired.

According to Voog, the decline in EKRE's support may be a temporary state of affairs; a clearer picture will emerge after analyzing the May ratings, he said.

"We'll see whether this effect is short-term or not, but I also think that when they tied themselves very strongly to Orbán, and when Orbán lost, their reactions were very emotional and hysterical," Voog summed up.

Kantar Emor is commissioned by ERR to compile its monthly ratings survey. Russian-speaking voters referred to are Estonian citizens, since only Estonian citizens may vote in Riigikogu elections.

The next elections are to the Riigikogu in March 2027.

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