Ratings: Isamaa and Center jointly top April poll
The opposition Isamaa and Center parties were almost neck-and-neck in support in April, according to a recent poll.
Isamaa was slightly ahead of Center according to the survey, conducted by pollsters Kantar Emor on behalf of ERR. Coalition party Eesti 200, long in the doldrums, while the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), in opposition, experienced a 10-year low in its rating.
In April, Isamaa's support stood at 25 percent, leading the Center Party by 3 percentage points according to Kantar Emor, a gap which can narrow next month.
"This gap is not statistically significant, and the next survey in May may yield a result similar to March, when the two leading parties differed by just one percentage point," said Kantar Emor research expert Aivar Voog.
The opposition Social Democratic Party (SDE) has clearly risen to third place at 17 percent in April— level last seen in September 2025. Voog cautioned on seeing permanency in this rating too, however.
"SDE's rise mainly came from improved support among those under 24. Considering the instability of preferences in this target group, the party's rise may also be rather short-lived," Voog said.
The coalition Reform Party remains steadily in fourth place at around 12 percent support according to the latest poll.
EKRE, which had long enjoyed support above 10 percent, saw its rating fall below that to 9 percent in April. This was, Voog said, mainly due to a drop in support from male voters, and, again, may not be permanent.
"This may also be a fairly short-term phenomenon. The last time EKRE's support was below 10 percent was in 2015," Voog noted. EKRE was founded in 2012.
Support for the non-parliamentary Parempoolsed stood at 8 percent in April. This would translate to Riigikogu seats if an election were held now.
Meanwhile Eesti 200 still lies below the 5-percent threshold required to clinch seats in a given electoral district, though the party's rating has seen a small improvement.
"Eesti 200 showed some improvement, rising to 4 percent. The coming months will show whether this was more of a random fluctuation or the start of a new longer-term trend," Voog added.
Center overwhelming pick of respondents of 'other nationalities'
The Emor survey showed that 72 percent of respondents of "other nationalities," in practice meaning predominantly Russian-speaking voters, showed a preference for the Center Party. This demographic had long been Center's bedrock of support, though the rating here had taking somewhat of a battering in recent years.
Isamaa and SDE follow at 7 percent each with these respondents.
Center also performed best among people who graduated high school or vocational school, but did not attend higher education (24 percent); among respondents in Ida-Viru County (49 percent) and Tallinn (32 percent), and among women, at 25 percent of respondents
While 19 percent of men respondents to the Kantar survey said they would vote for Center too, Isamaa outstripped that by some way: 31 percent of men respondents said they would vote for Isamaa, compared with 20 percent of women.
Higher earners often prefer SDE
Households with an average monthly income exceeding €1,500 per family member picked SDE in nearly one out of four cases: SDE rated at 24 percent with this demographic. With the €1,000-€1,500 per month per family member group, the most-supported party was Isamaa, at 29 percent. Isamaa also polled higher than any party in the €600-€1,000 per month per family member demographic, this time at 25 percent.
Center was the pick of the lowest income families (below €600 per family member per month) by some margin, at 34 percent, followed by Isamaa (22 percent) and EKRE (16 percent).
EKRE support fell below ten percent
Looking at the long-term trends, while as many as a quarter of voters backed EKRE in mid-2022, in the past couple of years its support has fluctuated between 10 and 20 percent, as noted dropping to the more-or-less historic low of 9 percent in April. Its baseline typical supporter was a native Estonian speaking male aged 65-74 (where the party polled at 13 percent) or younger working-age males (25-34, with a 12-percent rating); this voter would be most typically resident in western Estonia: Pärnu County, Lääne County, and the islands of Saaremaa and Hiiumaa. EKRE polled at around 19 percent in this region.
Kantar Emor's latest survey was conducted April 13-22, polling a total of 1,526 voting-age citizens. The share of respondents who answered "don't know" came to 27.2 percent of all voting-age citizens surveyed. With this sample size, the maximum possible margin of error is ±2.2 percent, Kantar Emor says.
The next direct elections in Estonia are to the Riigikogu, in March 2027.
--
Editor: Andrew Whyte
