Spring and summer are typically when Europe refills its gas storage facilities for winter. But elevated prices tied to tensions in the Middle East are making that process more expensive.

Even so, Kalvi Nõu, portfolio manager for energy trading at Alexela, said current price spikes do not necessarily mean gas will cost more next winter.

"Prices for the coming fall and winter depend above all on the gas market situation," he told ERR, citing factors including supply risks, LNG flows, competition between Asia and Europe, and the weather.

If tensions ease and supply chains stabilize, prices could fall, Kalvi said. But if disruptions persist or worsen, prices may remain elevated.

For now, he added, the usual seasonal dip looks uncertain.

"Prices could remain high or even rise over the summer," Nõu said, pointing to a risk premium and uncertainty in the LNG supply chain. Still, lower summer demand should soften the impact on households compared with winter.

Conflict may drag

Energy expert and Baltic Energy Partners OÜ partner Marko Allikson, meanwhile, said futures prices on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas exchange have climbed not just for the near term but through next winter.

He said the market is pricing in fears that the conflict could drag on, especially after recent attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure. Still, the current situation does not yet point to significantly higher average gas prices next winter compared with last winter.

"Today's price curve reflects concern that the conflict will not end quickly enough," Allikson said, warning that a significant volume of LNG could be missing from the market this year.

Even so, he said the potential loss — about 17 percent of Qatar's annual LNG output — would not by itself derail the global market if the conflict ends soon and no further damage occurs.

No incentive to stock up

A bigger concern for Europe is the unusual price structure: summer gas is now more expensive than winter supply.

"That kind of situation doesn't give market participants enough incentive to stock up on natural gas," Allikson said, noting a similar pattern last year that left European storage facilities only 83 percent full.

Whether regulators step in to force storage injections could prove critical. During the 2022 energy crisis, such measures helped drive prices to nearly €350 per megawatt-hour (MWh).

Much will depend on storage levels and the weather, Allikson continued. A mild winter with strong renewable output would push prices down; a cold one would do the opposite.

"First we'll need to understand how long the fighting around the Persian Gulf will continue," he added.

High gas prices could also spill over into electricity markets, Nõu said, as gas-fired generation often sets market prices during peak demand or low renewable output.

Consumers can still lock in fixed rates. As of Friday, Alexela is offering fixed natural gas plans at €0.97 per cubic meter for one year, while Elenger is offering one- and two-year contracts starting at €0.96 — relatively high by recent standards.

At Alexela, Nõu said interest in fixed-rate plans has grown amid market volatility, adding that customers' choices depend on whether they prefer market-based pricing or certainty.

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