However, Moscow lacks the capabilities to pull off such an operation, Tarien went on.

"I believe that the Russian military side is currently looking at this campaign and thinking that this is what they themselves wanted to do to Ukraine in 2022, but it didn't work out that way — they did not have the capability to quickly take down the opponent's air defense and leadership," said Tarien, now head of partnerships at defense tech firm Farsight Vision OÜ.

"That was what it looked like on the map which Russia was trying for, but couldn't. And now they can surely see that the U.S. military is in a completely different class; that this was carried out very quickly," he added.

According to Tarien, the strikes are also exactly the kind envisioned by both U.S. and NATO doctrine: "This is how modern wars will start — first, control of the airspace is seized. In the initial waves, Iran's air defense has been suppressed; now Israeli and U.S. aircraft have practically complete freedom of operation, and they are striking the targets they themselves consider priorities for achieving their objectives."

Overall the U.S. has achieved significant success with its air campaign in the first days, in Tarien's assessment. "Iran's leadership, several key figures, have been eliminated. Air defenses have been neutralized; there has been no indication that Iranian aircraft even took off — probably not. At this point, U.S. and Israeli strike aircraft can fly to the designated targets set for destruction."

When asked whether airstrikes like these might destroy Iran's ballistic missile capability and any nuclear ambitions it has, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Saturday with the start of the operation, Tarien responded in the affirmative. "Yes, a large part of it, or the vast majority of it, can be destroyed. I believe intelligence has sufficiently good information about where those facilities are located, and now that the airspace is open and they can be bombed, this can set back the nuclear and missile capability by several years, which is what is now being done," he said.

Although Iran is territorially speaking a vast country and its airstrike assets are certainly well hidden and fortified, Tarien said he believes the U.S. and Israel are still capable of destroying them.

"Iran has been living for decades with the understanding that it could be attacked and has dispersed and fortified its critical assets. But I would not underestimate Israeli and U.S. intel in knowing precisely the locations. And carrying out strikes is no longer a technical problem for the U.S. today, even when it comes to destroying fortified targets," Tarien went on.

As for the missiles and drones launched in response by the Iranian regime toward U.S. bases in neighboring countries and toward Israel, Tarien noted that from a regime perspective this had to be done in any case, otherwise they would have been destroyed on the ground.

"Certainly Iran's first response was to start firing before their missiles were destroyed on the ground. At the time when the U.S. and Israel were eliminating the [Iranian] leadership and suppressing air defenses, Iran had its first opportunity to launch missiles. Undoubtedly, several of those launchers were destroyed as a result of that firing. So even if they may still have missiles somewhere stored underground, the launchers generally, I think, will not get to fire more than once during this campaign — they will be destroyed very quickly. I believe this is where Iran will be facing problems," Tarien remarked.

At the same time, Tarien noted that if the Iranian regime is not destroyed, it will sooner or later be able to restore its threat to the West. "If that regime remains in place, they will rebuild themselves sooner or later. I would draw a parallel here with Russia — even if we say that the war machine has been worn down and damaged, if the regime remains in place, sooner or later it becomes a threat again."

As for options on deploying U.S. and allied ground forces, Tarien said he considers that highly unlikely, due to the costs it would incur. "It would be expensive and costly and would go against everything President Trump has said. I very much doubt that he would want such an expensive war, which would undoubtedly drag on and in which Americans would lose their lives. I do not believe he would go that far."

As for how long the current air war will last, Tarien said that much hinges both on developments in Iran and on U.S. domestic politics.

"To some extent, it probably also depends on whether a popular movement or revolution emerges in Iran to overturn the authorities. They would certainly continue to support that with airstrikes," he said. "There may also be certain American domestic political factors — when it is necessary to extend it or to wind it down, when to declare success. If the ultimate objective is politically somewhat vague, tied to the expectation of an uprising by the Iranian people, then the length of the military campaign is relatively impossible to predict," Tarien concluded.

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