The U.S. has recently seized a seventh tanker, which in this case was linked to Venezuela. Earlier in the month, the U.S. seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker, the Marinera (originally known as the Bella-1), which had been shadowed by a Russian submarine, ending a two-week wild goose chase across the Atlantic.

Security expert Raivo Vare provided some insight into why Russia has not yet reacted robustly to these seizures. He noted that there are several factors at play. Firstly, Russian oil continues to reach China, one of its major customers, primarily from ports in the Russian Far East. Secondly, the shadow fleet, which sails under a variety of international flags and operates with global crews, consists of more than 1,200 vessels — too many for Russia to track at all times.

However, Vare pointed out that defending the fleet is also quite a challenge. "As a Russian counter-move, one could already predict that they will start escorting more important cargoes with warships, but they do not have enough warships to cover everyone," Vare noted.

This situation hints at the effectiveness of U.S. actions so far, with some shipowners now fearing the risks and costs of continuing to serve as part of the shadow fleet.

Maritime law Professor Alexander Lott emphasized that this action should be continued by major powers, particularly the United States, although Estonia has led the way on the policy.

"The current vessel seizures carried out by the Americans are essentially a continuation of the same campaign that Estonia launched with the Kiwala detention in April last year," Lott explained. A month later, a decision to board another tanker, the Jaguar, was reversed after Russia had responded.

In Lott's view, the further from the Baltic Sea such operations take place—and the more capable the maritime states executing them—the more beneficial it is for Estonia. While Estonia spearheaded this effort, many of those shadow fleet vessels seized by the U.S. would have likely reached the Baltic Sea.

Turning to global oil prices, Alexela sector manager Tarmo Kärsna said that while the seizures have garnered considerable attention, they would exert little impact on oil prices. Instead, he pointed out, "What has influenced the oil price? Above all, a lot of emotion has been generated by the possible trade war between the EU and the U.S., again in connection with Greenland. The concern is that quite a large part of Europe imports energy carriers from the U.S." Kärsna said.

Still, the U.S. has taken the most forceful steps so far. Germany and France have also acted, but the ball comes back onto the Baltic side of the court: A large portion of shadow fleet traffic still moves through the Baltic after all.

In the case of the Jaguar, in May last year, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet violated Estonian airspace to shield the tanker, prompting Portuguese Air Force F-16s, part of the Baltic Air Policing mission from Ämari Air Base, to scramble and conduct a reconnaissance flight alongside other Estonian aircraft. The tanker eventually left for Russian waters without being boarded. This incident marked the first time Russia so openly backed a shadow fleet vessel.

These BBC podcasts here and here provide further insights into the shadow fleet.

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