"This episode is still a bit too brief to say whether U.S. rhetoric and, to some extent, policy has changed," said security expert Rainer Saks, commenting on the U.S. special forces' seizure on Wednesday of a Venezuela-linked oil tanker sailing under the Russian flag.

"We're not yet seeing such a drastic shift in relation to Ukraine; the changes are mainly centered around what's happening in Venezuela. Still, this represents a very serious confrontation between the U.S. and Russia and also between the U.S. and China," Saks said, referring to how, on January 3, the U.S. extracted Venezuela's former leader from Caracas and has since increased pressure on the country, which has maintained warm ties with both Moscow and Beijing.

While recent U.S. actions don't necessarily indicate a broader policy shift toward increased pressure on Russia, there may be early signs of one, he added.

"In the past week, the press has reported that the U.S. has taken a noticeably firmer stance toward Russia in recent meetings about the Ukraine peace process. Still, we're not yet seeing this translate into consistent, concrete policy. That could change, but the first serious indicator is actually Senator Lindsey Graham's announcement that the U.S. president has agreed to initiate the voting process in Congress on a new sanctions bill targeting Russia," Saks said. "Previously, the U.S. president had opposed pushing the nearly finalized bill forward, using it more as a minor pressure tool against Russia, while stating he didn't support implementing the sanctions at this time. If Congress now passes this bill and the president signs it into law, that would mark a major shift."

Saks also pointed out that there haven't been any direct meetings between U.S. and Russian diplomats for some time, although they are likely still communicating by phone. Similarly, Russia has made no visible effort in the past two weeks to engage the U.S. in talks on the Ukraine peace process.

"That in itself may be a sign that some changes have taken place. But when it comes to Ukraine, I still wouldn't go so far as to say this marks a definitive shift and we also don't know whether it will lead to any real progress in ending the war anytime soon," he said.

Saks noted that Venezuela is located in the Western Hemisphere, which the United States has declared an exclusive zone of interest. As such, the current U.S. administration is deliberately avoiding linking its actions there to other geopolitical regions or issues.

"It's absolutely clear that the U.S. does not want to tie the Venezuela case directly to other foreign policy processes — there's no interest in making any deals or swaps. That's precisely the idea behind the old Monroe Doctrine: that in the Western Hemisphere, the U.S. does not bargain with other states for influence but rather asserts its interests unilaterally and independently," Saks explained.

Still, developments around Venezuela could impact Russia's global position more broadly, he added.

"Russia has ended up seriously disgraced over its support for its ally and that will undoubtedly start to influence its behavior in other arenas. It's hard to say exactly how that will play out, especially as Iran — another of Russia's key allies — is currently facing serious problems. Overall, the situation looks fairly grim for Russia at the moment. Russia definitely wants to get out of this, but most of its resources are tied up in the war in Ukraine," Saks said. "This is where the logic comes in: you either focus on just one issue and try to salvage that or you try to confront the U.S. globally and risk failing. These are the kinds of choices Russia is likely trying to make right now. It's also likely seeking ways to coordinate some kind of joint approach with China."

According to Saks, it is still very difficult to predict how this evolving political situation will play out in practice.

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