"It's likely in Russia's interest to keep the Baltic Sea as trouble-free and navigable as possible, since its exports depend on the region's stability. /---/ Strategically speaking, Moscow doesn't need that kind of mess. At the same time, Russia is also characterized by bardak — disorder — so you can't fully rule out a situation where one hand doesn't know what the other is doing," Vosman told Eesti Ekspress (in English here) in an interview.

"My strong assessment is that most of the recent incidents in the Baltic Sea have largely been the result of coinciding factors — much heavier ship traffic toward Russia, vessels in poor condition with low crew competence, more underwater infrastructure than in the past and increased public attention. Faulty anchoring equipment cutting underwater cables in stormy conditions has happened before, but no one talked about it. At the same time, the longer the West collectively allows Russia's shadow fleet to race around the Baltic, the more likely it becomes a matter of time before something else happens," said Vosman, who became Estonia's ambassador to Israel in September last year.

Collateral damage

In Vosman's view, a conventional war against Estonia is unlikely in the near term for various reasons.

"As for Ukraine and what Ukrainian intelligence leaders have said about the Baltics — not only this year but earlier as well — that's largely aimed at creating a sense of urgency or acuteness in the West to push them into dealing more assertively with Russia. So we're kind of collateral damage in that regard," Vosman said.

He added that statements from Western politicians and intelligence services are often directed at their domestic audiences, for example, Germany seeking a pretext to increase defense spending.

Baltic Sea is Russia's "lifeline"

This is not the first time Estonia's intelligence services have said Russia did not orchestrate the cutting of cables in the Baltic Sea.

In an article published in August 2025 about the fear of war in Estonia, the outlet wrote: "Both the Foreign Intelligence Service and the Internal Security Service (KAPO) assess that these incidents were also not acts of sabotage orchestrated by Russian intelligence services. One senior government official says there is concrete evidence confirming this, but does not disclose what it is."

It also points out that the Baltika fiber-optic cable owned by Rostelecom, Russia's largest telecommunications company, which runs along the seabed from Kingissepp to Kaliningrad, has been cut twice.

The first inicident was in October 2023 at the same time as the Hong Kong-flagged New New Polar Bear damaged the Balticconnector gas pipeline, and the second was in the Gulf of Finland in February 2025.

In the same article, Eesti Ekspress writes, after a conversation with an unnamed official, that Russia cannot afford to risk having its operations in the Baltic Sea shut down because it is the country's "lifeline" as a very large share of its oil transport goes through it. Russia is prepared to send navy vessels or fighter jets to respond, if needed.

"The Baltic Sea is Estonia's nuclear deterrent: We have the capability to hurt Russia very badly there," the official told the publication.

Senior military officials have previously said Finland and Estonia would block the Gulf of Finland and obstruct Russia's connection between St Petersburg and Kaliningrad if necessary

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!