In a recent social media post, Oidsalu criticized a claim made in Eesti Ekspress by former Foreign Intelligence Service analyst and current Ambassador to Israel Andres Vosman who suggested that the severing of communication cables by Russia's shadow fleet was merely a coincidence and the result of accidents.

Oidsalu also advised maintaining a skeptical view of analysts who claim to know exactly how Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks.

However, he said the issue is not that intelligence analysts are particularly unintelligent or malicious, but rather that they operate in an inherently unpredictable field.

Speaking on Vikerraadio Monday morning, the security expert cited a U.S. university study which found that predictions made by the "security official elite" were accurate only 58 percent of the time.

According to Oidsalu, the Government Office publishes a monthly newsletter on strategic communication, which clearly shows that even Western democracies, including Estonia, seek to subtly shape public attitudes toward certain events.

He said this is also confirmed by the response of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early 2022 when Russian troops were massing near Ukraine's border. Instead of adopting a fully transparent communication strategy, Ukrainian leadership opted for a tone intended to calm the public.

"We saw this in Ukraine as well, where Zelenskyy said, 'Don't stoke panic.' That we don't need to tear ourselves apart, that people would leave, the economy would collapse. And at that point, a very large force had already gathered at Ukraine's borders — but other influences started coming into play, let's say cognitive biases, which tend to emerge in such situations," Oidsalu said.

Next phase of Russia's hybrid war

In response to the host's question about Putin's next moves, Oidsalu suggested that this year could see the next phase of hybrid warfare.

"There's definitely the potential for things to get bloodier. There's already been talk of a railway sabotage incident in Poland, shopping centers have been set on fire — the same sort of thing has happened in Lithuania and Poland," Oidsalu said.

So far, however, Western security systems have managed to handle and prevent such acts of sabotage fairly well, according to Oidsalu.

"These operations haven't exactly been harmless, but sooner or later, something may happen that results in a high number of civilian casualties and an event like that would significantly heighten our sense of anxiety and perception of danger."

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