One of Estonia's best-known entrepreneurs, Jüri Käo, gave ERR a long and interesting interview. Several of his remarks stood out. Käo said: "The world is shifting in a direction where, thanks to Donald Trump, the laws of nature, physics and economics are starting to matter again. The green transition as an ideological movement has had its moment and now the laws of physics and nature are making a comeback." Secondly: "Ideology no longer works." Third: "I think we need to make sure we don't fall out with our most important ally, the United States. We shouldn't be criticizing or attacking them — we need to stay aligned. In today's world order, small countries no longer have the luxury of pursuing fully independent paths."

I disagree. Donald Trump does indeed cause great confusion with his unorthodox statements and decisions. But whether, thanks to him, the laws of nature and economics will begin to function normally again is questionable. It's understandable that businesspeople appreciate his approach of running the country like a company, mainly through deal-making. But whether that's successful in the long term is, again, doubtful. It's hard to find successful historical examples of this approach because deals lack idealism. Countries cannot function without idealism — companies can.

As a method of dealing with Trump and those like him, Käo suggests that we should avoid upsetting him. I call this way of thinking "Trumpization." The term, of course, is derived from "Finlandization," which meant making compromises in the hope of securing favorable treatment from a stronger power.

But the most important question: do ideologies no longer work? In this case, the answer is clear — they absolutely do.

The time of ideologies has not passed

Ideology — big truths, grand principles — is always present, whether in a state, a nation, a company, a political party or even a gang of bandits. Guiding truths are extremely important when it comes to organizing group behavior. Developing them is one of the most energy-intensive tasks there is and adherence to them is usually enforced strictly. Supposed violators of sacred truths have been burned at the stake or otherwise killed by the millions.

The Ten Commandments, Islam, democracy, humanism, fascism or even "work hard and love will follow" (a famous quote by Estonian writer Anton Hansen Tammsaare – ed.) — these are all ideologies whose principles guide many people.

"I'm not guided by anything or anyone, I make all my own decisions" is a nice-sounding phrase, but simply not true. Estonia is considered a very atheistic country and it's often claimed that religion plays little role here. That may be true when it comes to church attendance, but Lutheran principles still strongly shape our lives, as they've provided the framework for our values. The ethical and cultural influence of a long-deceased great-grandmother is, in most cases, stronger in practice than the combined authority of parliament, the police and a spouse.

A nod to ideology for those in business as well: Robert Shiller, the recipient of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics, considers the Ten Commandments the most effective economic ideology.

The point of all this is that ideologies have not disappeared. Trump has not abolished them. They have merely been tactically trimmed. This raises the question: What significant contribution has Donald Trump made to global thinking — if any at all? Withdrawing support for the green movement, purging government agencies of officials he deems useless, eliminating foreign aid intended to support democracy — these are some of his more visible moves.

Conducting foreign policy through sharp tax hikes and sometimes cuts as a way to reward good behavior remains a relatively unused tool. But it holds no eternal meaning; it's simply a technical method of sending a message.

Perhaps some of his methods are economically effective in the short term, but from an image perspective, they are highly questionable or, as the Poles say, every Kraków sausage has two ends. On the positive side, he deserves recognition for his role as NATO's alarm bell, demanding that defense spending be raised to 5 percent of GDP. But even that is just a means to achieve something else.

So what is the grand idea he'll go down in history for? In fact, he does have one — but whether he himself wants to be remembered for it is unclear. The most consequential steps he's taken in recent times are his actions regarding Venezuela and his extraordinarily aggressive stance toward Greenland. With those, the United States' role as the world's peacekeeper, which had lasted for over 80 years, came to an end because a new principle now reigns.

Migh makes right

The principle that might makes right, as established over the past two years, certainly allows Trump to be seen as an agent of major change. The message landed quickly — some received it with fear, others as an opportunity. Russian propagandists immediately caught on and talked themselves hoarse into microphones, proclaiming that international law can go to hell, it no longer means anything. "We need the Baltic states, Armenia, Kazakhstan, etc." If Trump is allowed, then so are we.

Of course, not everyone welcomes such a fundamental shift. Europe is planning countermeasures, but whether they will be effective remains to be seen. So far, most European protests against Trump have resembled what was once called, before World War I, "the fury of a sleeping sheep."

This notion of force overriding law is hardly new; for most of its existence, the world has operated on that basis. In Europe, the last major figure to declare that the time of small nations was over was Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov in 1939. That big idea resulted in the spheres-of-influence agreement with Germany, better known as the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Its impact is still felt in Estonia and many other countries — even among people who have never heard that such a pact ever existed.

That ideology led to a great war, one that claimed 80 million lives and caused the temporary disappearance of dozens of small states. In our case and for many others, that "temporary" lasted 50 years. To prevent it from happening again, a complex and still-functioning network of international organizations — such as the UN, NATO and the European Union — was built after the war, requiring many nations to work together for a common cause. Russia has shown no interest in this peacetime order and, in recent years, has launched a series of actions aimed at redrawing previously agreed-upon borders. With its hunger to acquire Greenland, the United States under Trump joined that same playbook.

What can we do?

There are three publicly recognizable strategies in Estonia for responding to the ideological shift taking place in the United States.

Some believe the best course is not to react and to hope for the best — after all, the world surely can't go that far off the rails. Moreover, the United States has been our most important ally for 80 years, never recognized the occupation of Estonia and has helped us as much as it could. We are genuinely grateful for all of that. There is also a U.S. military presence in Estonia, which carries not only military weight but also enormous symbolic significance.

Then there are many who cannot accept the current developments in any form and believe that Europe must find within itself the will, energy and resources to act as a subject, not an object. The forceful interview given by President Toomas Hendrik Ilves to ERR clearly expressed this view.

The third group wants to embrace "Trumpization." This stance has been articulated most bluntly by EKRE's Martin Helme. In an interview with Arp Müller on Vikerraadio on January 16, Helme said the world is entering a new phase in which the former rules-based world order is collapsing and real politics are now shaped by three power centers: the United States, China and Russia. Europe is merely a bystander. Estonia is not a great power and it would be unwise for us to place ourselves between America, China and Russia.

It seems many people find this view acceptable — after all, Jüri Käo expressed much the same. Others, however, question whether Trumpization is truly effective. Our northern neighbors offer an interesting case study. In Estonia, Finnish President Alexander Stubb's diplomatic skill has been frequently praised — his apparent influence as Trump's golfing partner, for instance. But in the case of Greenland, Finland is among those countries facing U.S.-imposed tariffs. When it comes to land and natural resources, golf means little to a businessman.

What next?

The current global situation is indeed highly complex. The existing security net is fraying at every seam due to how the leaders of major powers envision their countries and their own roles. Things could still settle down — Trump has reversed his decisions before when he's sensed strong opposition. Even if immediate threats diminish, the message that "might makes right" has been delivered and the anxiety it stirred remains. No one knows when the urge to act on that message will next arise.

Surprisingly, the ball is now in Europe's court. This, despite Russian propagandists and some Estonian politicians claiming that Europe doesn't matter and no one asks Europe's opinion. But if Europe dares to push back in the coming weeks, it's entirely possible that Trump's MAGA (Make America Great Again) project could unexpectedly turn into MEGA — Make Europe Great Again. Europe already has everything it needs: a large population, a rich cultural history, vast intellectual potential and strong education.

If that happens, Trump could end up as the father of Europe's renewed strength. He has bolstered Europe's military posture and shaken it from a lethargic slumber of comfort and indecision. That would be a remarkable historical legacy, as it would enhance Ukraine's prospects and with them, Estonia's security as well. As we can see, everything is connected and the number of possible outcomes is vast — just like in chess.

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