Commenting on the results, Robert Müürsepp, Statistics Estonia's national accounts service manager, said the flash estimate indicates a slight improvement in the economy compared with the Q4 2024, while the trend was unchanged compared with the Q3 2025. "The seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP remained at the same level as in the third quarter," Müürsepp added

Statistics Estonia says official GDP data for Q4 2025 will be published on March 2, adding economic trends can be assessed in advance using indicators such as trade, manufacturing, transport, tax, energy, and price data. These are used in econometric models to describe seasonality and overall economic conditions.

The flash estimate assumes stable trends and may exclude major transactions that can strongly affect Estonia's small economy. Since it relies on statistical models, it is not methodologically comparable to the official GDP, which includes all economic transactions, Statistics Estonia says.

Luminor economist: Actually a downturn

Commenting on the results, Luminor's chief economist Lenno Uusküla said that while annual growth in Q3 2025 stood at 0.9 percent, and the pace of growth seemed to have accelerated, the flash GDP estimate shows no growth in quarter-on-quarter terms, meaning there was a setback compared with the second and third quarters of 2024.

"Estonia's economy began to recover from the downturn last year. Although growth was driven by electricity production and value added in manufacturing, most sectors were still slightly in negative territory," Uusküla noted. "The purchasing power of wages declined due to both tax increases and price growth."

Investments have also remained modest in such an environment. The real estate market became somewhat more active thanks to loan interest rates reaching around two percent and stabilzing. "As a result, there was more confidence to take out loans," he added.

Stronger economic growth can be expected in 2026 thanks to higher private consumption and a rise in government spending, Uusküla went on.

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