The poll, conducted by Norstat on behalf of the Institute of Social Studies, found that 21 percent of voters would prefer this alignment, followed by a coalition of Isamaa, the Social Democrats (SDE), and the Reform Party, picked by 14 percent of respondents.

The poll asked respondents to choose their most preferred government coalition lineup if elections were held right now.

Combining this with the most recent Norstat party ratings survey and transposing those results into mandates, the seat distribution at an election held right now would be: Isamaa 32 seats, the Center 22 seats, SDE 15 seats, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) 15 seats, Reform Party 11 seats, and Parempoolsed six.

This seat distribution also determined which coalition lineups respondents could choose from. In other words, only theoretical alliances that would have a majority in the 101-seat chamber. "Superfluous" MPs were also excluded from this coalition picture.

Respondents were asked: "If elections were held today, based on current party support, the following government coalitions would be the most likely. Which of these would be your preferred government coalition?"

In addition to Isamaa and Center picking up 21 percent support and Isamaa+SDE+Reform being supported by 14 percent of respondents, the following ranking of coalitions emerged:

• Isamaa + SDE + Parempoolsed: 8.1 percent
• Isamaa + EKRE + Parempoolsed: 6.1 percent
• Center + EKRE + SDE: 5.7 percent
• Center + SDE + Reform + Parempoolsed: 5.3 percent
• Isamaa + EKRE + SDE: 4.1 percent
• Center + EKRE + Reform + Parempoolsed: 0.8 percent
• Isamaa + EKRE + Reform: 0.5 percent

A total of 34.3 percent of respondents answered "Don't know."

Norstat found this share of respondents answering "don't know" to be notably high for the question posed, though the proportion varied depending on which party the respondent said they supported.

Center Party supporters were the most undecided on which lineup they would prefer at 33 percent, while Isamaa backers had the most made-up minds at 16 percent.

Between those two poles, 27 percent of Parempoolsed supporters said they were undecided about which alliance they would pick, just ahead of EKRE voters at 26 percent. The figures for Reform (24 percent) and SDE (23 percent) were slightly lower.

By party preference, those who did have a specific coalition lineup in mind came from the Reform Party. 58 percent from this group stated they would prefer a coalition of Reform, Isamaa, and SDE.

Among those respondents who said they would vote for Center, 50 percent said they would want a coalition with their party plus Isamaa, i.e., the most-supported lineup overall.

For Isamaa voters, this alliance was also the most appealing, though backed by a slightly smaller proportion of people at 46 percent.

42 percent of Parempoolsed voters would back a coalition of Isamaa and SDE, together with their own party.

SDE voters' largest single choice of government alliance would consist of SDE, Reform, and Isamaa, backed by 37 percent of respondents.

EKRE supporters would most prefer a coalition of Isamaa, EKRE, and Parempoolsed, though at 24 percent this found the least support of any theoretical lineup when broken down by party support.

Norstat conducted the survey online only, December 17-18, polling 1,012 Estonian citizens of Riigikogu voting age (18 and over).

The next elections to the Riigikogu take place in 2027.

At the last elections in 2023, the seat distribution was: Reform – 37 seats, EKRE – 17 seats, Center – 16 seats, Eesti 200 – 14 seats, SDE – 9 seats, Isamaa – 8 seats. Parempoolsed was formed a few months before those elections and won its first electoral seats at October's local government elections.

A Center-Isamaa coalition entered into office in Tallinn alone earlier this month.

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