In its campaign, Isamaa defined its main opponents as the Reform Party and the Center Party. Logically, then, in Tartu, the first coalition option on the table shouldn't have been a partnership with the Reform Party, but rather a coalition with the Social Democrats and smaller partners.

In the context of Tallinn, a strict values-based approach and the parties' past history should have immediately ruled out cooperation with the Center Party. That's why a decision in favor of the four-party alliance should have been announced the day after the elections. And yet, Isamaa has not made a final decision, and as of Thursday evening, two options are still on the table: a coalition with the Center Party or a four-party alliance with the Social Democrats, Parempoolsed and the Reform Party.

Regardless of what Isamaa ultimately decides in Tallinn, it's worth considering what the potential benefits of pursuing an alliance with the Center Party might be for Isamaa. After all, it's not the intuitively obvious choice that would have come to mind once the election results were in.

First, it's important to consider the broader context and the logic of election cycles. Even if cooperation with the Center Party draws criticism in the media and angers a portion of Isamaa's own supporters, the party can afford that at the moment. Riding high in the polls, a few percentage points lost in popularity wouldn't affect them significantly.

The situation would be entirely different if such a controversial power-sharing agreement were made at the end of an election cycle, as parliamentary elections approach. The risks and potential reputational damage would be much greater. In that case, the correct sequence for Isamaa would be clear: a pragmatic coalition with the Center Party now, followed by a more values-based alliance with the so-called "white forces" as Riigikogu elections near. That would minimize the costs and maximize the benefits.

Second, Isamaa certainly wants to demonstrate its ability to govern before the parliamentary elections and that is best achieved in coalitions with fewer partners. In a two-party coalition, Isamaa's municipal politicians would stand out more and instead of constantly having to reconcile the interests of three or four partners, they might actually get something done. A new four-party coalition in Tallinn would face the same problems as previous such alliances: constant internal tensions and the risk of collapse, which would intensify as elections approach. None of the smaller partners would be able to stand out next to the mayor's party, leading to added anxiety and so on. In short, if Isamaa truly wants to achieve something in Tallinn and show that it has a competent and active team, then a two-party coalition with the Center Party would be the best option.

Third, personal relationships and potential for cooperation shouldn't be underestimated. Cooperation with the Parempoolsed would be a real trial for Isamaa, as both sides already have a rather negative attitude toward each other.

In a two-party coalition with the Center Party, interpersonal relationships wouldn't be an issue. There wouldn't be any built-in sources of tension and as long as there's good faith on both sides, compromises could be reached on both the pace of the transition to Estonian-language education and on matters related to Russian culture and symbols. In addition, Isamaa could continuously tell the public that thanks to their efforts, Mihhail Kõlvart's city government remains on a pro-Estonian and relatively low-corruption course.

Fourth, the impact of public opinion should not be ignored. Isamaa members generally consider surveys conducted by the Institute for Societal Studies to be reliable and the most recent data showed — somewhat surprisingly — that a coalition between the Center Party and Isamaa was the most favored option. While Isamaa's supporters are split on the issue, more than half of respondents said they could accept such a possibility. So the reputational damage wouldn't be nearly as catastrophic as some may have initially feared.

In conclusion, it's all well and good to talk about values during an election campaign, but Isamaa wants to become a party of power, something that depends above all on realpolitik calculations. So neither the public nor Isamaa's own supporters should be surprised if a party striving to be in power behaves differently than a party giving lofty, sentimental campaign speeches. Politics is, after all, a stage for power games — not a world of beautiful, values-based choices designed to please everyone.

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