Martin Mölder, associate professor at the University of Tartu's Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies, said there has been little change in Estonian voters' preferences for prime minister over the past month.

"Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa) and Mihhail Kõlvart (Center) remain the most preferred prime ministerial candidates and in this latest survey, their overall support levels are equal — last time, Reinsalu was ahead by a few percentage points," Mölder explained. "There have been no significant shifts at the bottom of the table either. Only 10 percent of voters overall would prefer current Prime Minister Kristen Michal (Reform) in the role, making him just the fifth most popular choice among the electorate."

Voters across all political parties tend to favor their own party leader for the role of prime minister. The one consistent exception remains the Social Democrats.

"They have more supporters who are unsure whom they would like to see as prime minister than those who would prefer Lauri Läänemets. Among Social Democrat supporters who do have a clear preference, only half would choose their own party leader for the post," Mölder said.

It's also notable that about half of young people aged 18–24 are unsure whom they would prefer as prime minister. Among those who do have a preference, Mihhail Kõlvart is by far the most popular candidate.

The monthly survey on prime ministerial preferences was conducted between December 15 and 21, polling a total of 1,001 Estonian citizens eligible to vote. As with party ratings, the results exclude respondents who answered "don't know."

Preferences in pairs

In a December survey conducted by Norstat Estonia, respondents were also asked to choose who they would prefer as prime minister if the decision came down to just two candidates.

The candidate pairs were selected by the Institute for Societal Studies based on the two most popular figures in a survey conducted at the end of November, along with the current prime minister. Respondents were asked to choose between the following pairs: Reinsalu vs. Kõlvart, Reinsalu vs. Michal and Kõlvart vs. Michal. The question posed was: "If you could choose only between two candidates, which of them would be a more suitable prime minister for Estonia?"

If the choice were between Urmas Reinsalu and Mihhail Kõlvart, 46 percent of respondents would choose Reinsalu and 31 percent Kõlvart. Among ethnic Estonians, 53 percent would favor Reinsalu and 23 percent Kõlvart; among respondents of other nationalities, 15 percent would prefer Reinsalu and 67 percent Kõlvart.

Reinsalu is the most popular choice among supporters of Isamaa (89 percent), the Parempoolsed (66 percent), the Social Democrats (54 percent), the Reform Party (50 percent) and EKRE (45 percent). Kõlvart, meanwhile, is overwhelmingly favored by Center Party supporters (84 percent). Among EKRE supporters, however, Reinsalu's lead is narrow — 44 percent would choose Kõlvart for the role.

If the choice were between Reinsalu and Kristen Michal, 45 percent would favor Reinsalu and 22 percent Michal. Reinsalu is more popular among Isamaa (88 percent), EKRE (69 percent), Center Party (47 percent) and Parempoolsed (41 percent) supporters. Michal leads among Reform Party (83 percent) and Social Democratic (47 percent) voters.

If the contest were between Kõlvart and Michal, 41 percent would choose Kõlvart and 33 percent Michal. Among Estonians, 34 percent would favor Kõlvart and 38 percent Michal; among non-Estonian respondents, 72 percent would prefer Kõlvart and just 8 percent Michal. Kõlvart is more popular among supporters of the Center Party (88 percent), EKRE (70 percent) and Isamaa (42 percent). Michal leads among Reform Party (92 percent), Social Democratic (67 percent) and Parempoolsed (61 percent) supporters.

Mölder said that head-to-head comparisons of realistic prime ministerial candidates provide a better understanding of voter preferences in an actual government formation scenario. "The two largest parties have the greatest realistic chance of claiming the prime minister's post and, in an election context, it is their leaders who stand as credible alternatives to the current prime minister."

"The most important takeaway from these head-to-head matchups is that Urmas Reinsalu holds a significantly stronger position as an alternative to Kristen Michal than Mihhail Kõlvart does," Mölder noted. "Reinsalu is preferred over Michal by voters of the Center Party, EKRE, Isamaa and the Parempoolsed. Kõlvart is preferred over Michal by Center Party, EKRE and Isamaa voters. And when it comes to a direct comparison between Reinsalu and Kõlvart, Reinsalu is the top choice among supporters of every party except the Center Party, whose voters naturally want to see their own leader in the role."

"In short, if the Reform Party and Kristen Michal are out of the picture, then in a head-to-head comparison between realistic prime ministerial candidates, the Estonian electorate as a whole and almost every party's voters individually would prefer Urmas Reinsalu as prime minister," Mölder concluded.

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