Polling: Local elections had little impact on party support ratings

Last month's elections did not significantly change support for political parties, Kantar Emor found in its recent survey. Isamaa and the Social Democrats have become more popular, while EKRE's ratings have fallen.
In November, Isamaa continues to lead the party rankings, with its support rising to 26 percent.
In second place is the Center Party with 19 percent, followed by the Social Democratic Party (SDE), whose support has risen to 16 percent.
In October, Isamaa had 23 percent support, the Center Party 20 percent, and the Social Democrats 14 percent.
In fourth and fifth place are EKRE and Reform with 12 and 13 percent, respectively. Parempoolsed remains in sixth place with stable support at 9 percent. The ratings of the remaining parties are below the 5 percent election threshold.
In October, EKRE's support was measured at 15 percent, Reform's 13 percent, and Parempoolsed's 9 percent.
Junior coalition party Eesti 200 has seen its rating drop from 3 percent to 2.5 percent over the last month.
The number of people unable to pick a party was 26 percent in November, compared to 30 percent last month.
Voog: Elections did not bring major changes
Kantar Emor research expert Aivar Voog told ERR the elections had a slight impact on party standings, but no significant changes compared with the pre-election period.
Voog said support for the Center Party among Russian speakers has returned. In November, it was over 70 percent.
"But among Estonians, their support remains very unstable and below 10 percent. Compared with their [peak overall] support of nearly 30 percent, even among Estonians, it used to be clearly over 10 percent. They have not managed to regain that. But what is positive for them is that for four months now, they have had more or less stable support near 20 percent," he commented.
Responding to a question about why the elections did not lead to significant changes in ratings, Voog said there was no clear winning party. Instead, the outcome was ambiguous.

"The coalitions that have now formed in local governments are very colorful. Yes, Isamaa performed very well, and the Social Democrats did very well. Their ratings have improved somewhat, but not significantly, because the outcome is not unambiguous. Some places were clear wins, others were losses, so no one has gained a clear winner's aura. The situation is difficult, and the election results have not yet been confirmed," the expert said.
Voog explained that the low support for the Reform-Eesti 200 governing coalition seems to be connected to taxes.
"There will definitely not be a drastic change at the end of the year. What will be interesting is the beginning of next year, whether the income growth caused by the income tax reform in certain population groups will begin to have any effect. While economic confidence did improve somewhat in October and November, it is still far from where it used to be. If stronger positive trends emerge early next year that would allow consumer confidence to grow, that could be a big potential boost for support of the governing coalition parties — but that depends on how unified they are able to remain," Voog said.
Kantar Emor conducted the survey via web and telephone interviews from November 3 to 12, polling 1,483 citizens of voting age across Estonia. With this sample size, the maximum possible margin of error is ±2.2 percent.
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Editor: Aleksander Krjukov, Helen Wright










