Last weekend, opposition party Isamaa won 11 seats on Tallinn's City Government. It could partner with Center to form a two-party coalition or SDE, Reform and Parempoolsed to create a four-party alliance. Internal discussions took place last week, but coalition negotiations have not yet started.

The party faces difficult decisions in forming coalitions in both Tartu and Tallinn, as these are strategic choices with an eye toward the parliamentary elections in the spring after next, the experts told Saturday's "Aktuaalne kaamera."

So far, the party has been unable to decide internally which is more important.

"If the party's more strategic view is the next parliamentary elections, then it is important to push the current ruling parties into the opposition symbolically. It is most important for them to sideline the Reform Party. That's behind the different developments in Tartu and what we have seen more broadly," said political expert Annika Arras.

Tarmo Jüristo, head of the Liberal Citizen Foundation (SALK), believes that forming a four-party coalition would be more difficult for Isamaa in Tallinn, because the parties involved are largely competing for the same voters.

"Keeping that coalition together in the spring or summer of 2027 will be much harder than maintaining a coalition between the Center Party and Isamaa. And in a way, it is also easier for Center and Isamaa to go into elections together, positioning themselves in opposition to the current, relatively unpopular government," he said.

But the option of forming a coalition with the Center Party is not easy either, Arras said.

"A coalition with Center is dangerous for them for several reasons, especially in terms of values. You can see they are preparing on that front by floating certain questions to the public. They are clearly looking for some kind of sign or confirmation to justify going into coalition with Center," Arras said.

"Right now, they are playing it smart, driving up the value of their position. By dragging out negotiations and using various tactics, they are trying to get the other side to give them more and more of what they want. It is not out of the question that securing the mayor's seat will become a condition for forming the four-party coalition," she added.

Riigikogu member Raimond Kaljulaid (SDE) offered a different perspective. He is suggested that it is not a hard decision for Isamaa at all, and that the party is simply enjoying being at the center of attention.

"The real question is how this coalition would function. If Isamaa opts for the four-party alliance — as we had once before — if they can pull it together and work well this time. Then I think all the parties involved stand to gain. But if the opposite happens, and things fall apart again, then it will only end in losses," Kaljulaid said.

"The same applies to working with the Center Party. If everything runs smoothly, it could turn out to be a real advantage for them in the parliamentary elections. But if problems arise — allegations of pro-Russian sympathies, corruption, and so on — then Isamaa stands to lose," he said.

But how would Isamaa voters react to either outcome?

"Based on the latest poll results, it seems that a Center-Isamaa coalition is, broadly speaking, the most acceptable option for both Center and Isamaa voters. It is a bit more complicated in Tallinn: Isamaa's supporters in Tallinn appear to be somewhat more skeptical. But when you look at the alternative, Isamaa voters are also reluctant to join a coalition with the Reform Party, which Isamaa has strongly positioned itself against in its campaigns," said Tarmo Jüristo.

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