Support for Isamaa, which currently leads the pack, has risen by 2.3 percentage points over the past four weeks. Support for the Center Party remained unchanged over the past week, but it is now at its highest level in the past five years.

According to the latest results, 29.8 percent of eligible voters support Isamaa, 22.1 percent support the Center Party and 13.8 percent back the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).

Trailing the top three are the Social Democratic Party (12.5 percent), the Reform Party (10.9 percent), Parempoolsed (6.7 percent) and Eesti 200 (2 percent). Support for Parempoolsed has increased by 1.5 percentage points over the past three weeks.

Altogether, coalition parties are backed by 12.9 percent of respondents, while opposition parties in the Riigikogu are supported by 78.2 percent.

The most recent aggregate results reflect the polling period from October 20 to November 16, during which a total of 4,000 Estonian citizens of voting age were surveyed. When presenting the results, the Institute for Societal Studies (MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut) and polling firm Norstat Eesti AS focused on a four-week aggregate. This means the sample consists of at least 4,000 people, excluding respondents without a party preference when calculating the relative support levels for political parties.

The maximum margin of error depends on the size of the largest group's share. In this survey, the largest group was Isamaa supporters (29.8 percent), resulting in a margin of error of ±1.65 percentage points. For other parties, the margin of error is smaller — for example, ±0.51 percentage points for Eesti 200. Calculating party support percentages in this way smooths out fluctuations in individual surveys, which may arise from both greater statistical error and short-term events.

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