After the elections, there's a fleeting and highly unusual moment. Campaigns have ended, voters' attention has been released, but power has yet to be formed. It's still unclear what the elections actually mean in terms of who will gain power.

Power is hanging in the air, and that air is thick with tension and influence — thicker than it was during the final days of the campaign. Suddenly, some politicians seem to know exactly what's good or bad for their competitors' voters. And certain corners of the media also chime in, driven by a strong desire to see one party in power and another kept out. In this atmosphere, the real significance of the election can very quickly be forgotten.

What's most important to remember is that these local elections took place at a time when, on the national level, support for the governing parties was at a record low. Typically, the combined support for the ruling coalition stands between 40 and 50 percent, but Eesti 200 and the Reform Party have both long been polling under 15 percent. Naturally, that was reflected in the local election results.

Across the country, support for the Reform Party dropped from 17.3 percent in the previous local elections to just 10 percent this time around. Eesti 200's support fell from 6 percent to 1.7 percent. Meanwhile, Isamaa more than doubled its results and the Social Democrats also doubled theirs. These elections were a verdict on the government's performance, and that verdict was devastating.

For the Reform Party, two municipalities were of particularly critical and symbolic importance in this election: the city of Tartu and Rae Municipality. In both places, support for the Reform Party had previously been consistently strong. But in both, the party suffered defeats this time.

In Rae, Isamaa won the election with 31.1 percent of the vote, while the Reform Party came second with 21.2 percent. In the previous elections, the Reform Party took 47 percent in Rae and in 2017, they had 52 percent. At the time, Isamaa's support there was just 12 percent.

In Tartu, Isamaa also came out on top, earning 28.2 percent of the vote. The Reform Party came second with 26.7 percent. In the previous two local elections, the Reform Party received 37 percent in Tartu, while Isamaa had only 10 and 7 percent, respectively. The Reform Party lost its strongholds and Isamaa multiplied its vote there.

Although public attention has quickly shifted elsewhere during this power vacuum, this is one thing that shouldn't be forgotten: voter discontent is real.

If the Reform Party continues on its current course and does not make radical changes to its leadership, image and political offering, the party is very likely headed for collapse in the 2027 Riigikogu elections.

In that case, they'll need to prepare for possibly having half or even less the number of seats they currently hold in the Riigikogu. Half of the Reform Party's current MPs should start thinking about what job they'll be doing after March 2027, because their current one will be ending. The party faces a fateful dilemma: to reform or not. If they choose to change, there will be some pain now; if they don't, the pain will come later and possibly be much worse.

The Reform Party is a large and long-established party and an election defeat doesn't mean they'll disappear. At worst, it signals a longer period of decline from which they may still recover. But for a smaller party like Eesti 200, a wipeout in the local elections likely spells extinction. These elections were the party's last real chance to prove its relevance and they failed. They managed to get into the city council in Tartu, but even there, their result was less than half of what it had been in the previous local elections (15.9 percent versus 6.4 percent).

Tartu is Eesti 200's home turf — it's the electoral district of party leader and Minister of Education Kristina Kallas. The Ministry of Education is located in Tartu and many of the party's candidates were affiliated with the university. All of this should have given the party an edge in the Athens of the Emajõgi. They did make it into the city council, but that likely won't be enough, because they failed to deliver results elsewhere in the country. With that kind of political capital, their chances in the Riigikogu elections are nonexistent.

Whether the party is ready to change will become clear in the coming months. But it's worth remembering that Eesti 200 has already gone through several leadership changes in recent years. The party has had multiple opportunities to refresh or strengthen its brand. It simply hasn't done so. Which suggests that, in practice, they've already resigned themselves to fading away. For those Eesti 200 MPs who want to remain in politics, there are still a few months left to find a new political home that could get them into the next parliament.

A few words on forming city governments in Tallinn and Tartu. Be prepared for surprises. In Tallinn, the clear winner was the Center Party and nearly half of the city's residents would like to see it in power. In the post-election power vacuum, this fact seems to have been forgotten and all attention has shifted to Isamaa.

But how much does forming a city government in Tallinn actually depend on Isamaa? We don't know. What we do know is this: Tallinners would like Mihhail Kõlvart to be mayor, Center Party voters overwhelmingly prefer a coalition with Isamaa and Isamaa voters likewise tend to prefer a coalition with the Center Party. Also worth noting is that a two-party city government would be far more stable and effective than a four-party rainbow coalition that spans the entire ideological spectrum and inevitably contains far more built-in contradictions and conflicts.

As for Tartu, the situation is very complex from a coalition-building standpoint because there are many possible combinations. Depending on who becomes mayor, there could be two different Reform-Isamaa coalitions. Either party could also form a city government with the Social Democrats and the Center Party or with the Social Democrats and Eesti 200. In other words, the options are numerous. (Coalition talks are currently underway between Isamaa and Reform in Tartu – ed.)

This makes the formation of a city government difficult and renders any coalition fragile. At the start of the process, it seemed like Isamaa hadn't thought through their negotiation strategy very well. That process shouldn't begin with betraying your own or giving up your win. But now it appears the process has found a different rhythm and they're trying to correct their mistakes.

Once the city governments are formed, we might see a few months of relative calm, but the Riigikogu election cycle essentially begins at the start of the new year. What we saw in the local elections was like a qualifying round. We saw how fast everyone can go. Now the mechanics are analyzing what exactly went wrong and if they know what they're doing, they'll make the necessary adjustments to their engines. And then the real race begins.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!