Ukraine's ability to force a drone war on Russia is one of the reasons behind its relative success, and the country has so far managed to maintain its advantage in this area, security expert Rainer Saks said.

"Russia has been playing catch-up here and will likely remain in that position for some time, even though it is making enormous efforts to gain the upper hand in this domain. Russia would prefer to continuously strike Ukraine with long-range weapons rather than these small drones, aiming to destroy Ukraine's logistics, energy infrastructure — anything that would prevent Ukraine from waging this war," Saks said.

"This is Ukraine's current victory. Russia certainly wants to advance with large armored units and seize territory. It hasn't been able to do that. The drone war that Ukraine has forced upon Russia has prevented it from carrying out its plans. Right now, that's the only way Ukraine has managed to do it," he added.

Western countries are currently in talks about how to provide Ukraine with security guarantees once a possible ceasefire or long-term peace takes effect. The details of those discussions have not been made public. According to Saks, that's a good thing, because otherwise, those guarantees likely wouldn't work.

"We're seeing how Russia is trying very persistently — perhaps not very seriously, but still consistently — to push the narrative that it opposes the presence of European troops on Ukrainian territory. I don't think the question is whether or not Russia approves — its rhetoric is tactical. What it's doing is trying to raise the cost of Ukraine's security guarantees in order to get more in return," Saks said.

At the same time, it can't be said that Western countries have reached an agreement among themselves, although some public statements offer clues, Saks noted.

"What French President Emmanuel Macron and some other government leaders have repeatedly said is that Ukraine's own strong military is the most important security guarantee. The way I understand it, Ukraine's armed forces must not be disarmed immediately; support must continue — helping maintain the defense forces, arming them, training them, recruiting new conscripts. That way, Russia won't be able to launch another attack anytime soon," said Saks.

"Another crucial point is that Russia cannot drastically scale down its own military presence in Ukraine. It is being forced to wear itself down with this effort," he added.

Although peace is not on the horizon at the moment, it is still vital for Western countries to put Russia in a position where it sees that the West is genuinely prepared to guarantee Ukraine's security, Saks said.

"Russia cannot be allowed to drag out negotiations indefinitely. I'm convinced that even now, a ceasefire or some kind of pause in hostilities would suit Russia — just enough to reorganize its army and restore its defense industry capabilities. But at the moment, especially for the Russian president (Vladimir Putin), it seems like there's still a chance to extort terms that would allow him to resume the offensive under more favorable conditions later. Right now, Russia is engaging in tactical blackmail," said Saks.

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