More than half of Russia's crude exports go via the Baltic Sea, generally via hundreds of tankers with often dubious documentation – though experts say this latter aspect is making them harder to detect and not really deterring the growth of the shadow fleet, which goes on.

A large share of Russian oil destined for China and India, who had been enjoying the benefits of getting cheap, albeit sanctioned Russian oil, via the Gulf of Finland.

Alan Vaht, board member of fuel station chain Terminal, said: "Russia has three major export channels. One is via the Baltic Sea, which makes up about 60 percent of total export volume. Less than 40 percent comes via the Black Sea, and some via the Sea of Japan."

The ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk near St. Petersburg are two of the main loading points for oil going through the gulf.

While Trump made the decision Wednesday to impose an additional 25 percent tariff on India, that country had already started seeking alternatives to Russian oil, and has likely found them too, Vaht noted.

"Comparing the last weeks of July to June, India's imports from Russia had dropped by just under 20 percent. This is a very clear indication that India has found some kind of replacement for Russian oil. We are living in very interesting times," Vaht added.

The U.S. and the EU have together so far blacklisted nearly half of Russia's shadow fleet vessels — consisting of about 600 tankers, transporting Russian crude. Media reports say the White House is planning a fresh round of sanctions against the shadow fleet itself.

These restrictions will prove effective, researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security Marek Kohv said.

"If we take a look at what happened after the U.S. [previously] sanctioned some of the shadow fleet vessels, their effectiveness in generating revenue dropped drastically, and this allows us to state this is one of the most effective sanctioning methods," Kohv said.

However, despite all this pressure and activity, Russia's shadow fleet is still visibly growing, Estonian Navy maritime ops commander Capt. Ardo Riibon said. The tighter the inspections, the more forged documents are being discovered, he added.

"The documentation and certificates concerning the ship, which state the vessel's flag state and insurance — these forgeries are much more widespread than earlier. One factor could be heightened scrutiny. In any case, this is something we have identified. One might say ships are massively falsifying their certificates," Riibon said.

For as long as questionable certificates are under inspection, shadow fleet vessels are still able to depart the Gulf of Finland, as without cast iron proof, as a force from a democratic rule of law nation, the Estonian navy has no cause to detain vessels further for inspection. The navy also lacks a precise overview of how large a share of the tankers passing right under the noses of Estonia and Finland are continuing to export oil to India and China.

Riibon put the figure at: "Somewhere between 40–45 percent of these ships heading to Indian waters plus about 10–15 percent to the China region, but this is an estimate based essentially on the ships' own reported data, which they typically conceal or fail to disclose until leaving the Baltic Sea," he cautioned.

Trump this week announced sweeping new secondary tariffs which will impact any country still trading with Russia if a ceasefire with Ukraine is not agreed by tomorrow, Friday, with India becoming the first major country to be hit by the move.

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