Experts: Trump's nuclear submarines move a rhetorical step
According to Estonian experts, the U.S. president's remarks should be seen more as a rhetorical move than a direct strategic threat.
According to Marko Mihkelson (Reform), chair of the Riigikogu Foreign Affairs Committee, the talk of relocating submarines amounts more to a rhetorical threat, as strategic nuclear submarines are hidden in the vastness of the oceans and their whereabouts are unknown.
"What's more important than this issue of nuclear submarines is what Trump does on August 8, when his final ultimatum to Russia is set to expire. Will it be followed by sanctions, more forceful action? The talk of nuclear submarines is more of a rhetorical move than something that would fundamentally alter the geostrategic landscape," Mihkelson said.
Security expert Rainer Saks believes Trump's statement is primarily intended as a symbolic response to Dmitry Medvedev's bluster.
"This is really a case of information warfare, not a genuine military threat. The U.S. knows this and Russia understands it very well, too. The U.S. is trying to rein Russia in, to say that even nuclear threats without real intent behind them must stop," Saks said.
He does not believe Russia is interested in nuclear escalation with the United States.
"I don't think Russia wants to play the nuclear escalation game with the U.S. right now, as it would unsettle many other countries as well. There's a risk that nations like China could step in and start pressuring Russia on the matter," he added.
Retired Maj. Gen. Neeme Väli, who has previously served within NATO structures, said that an Ohio-class nuclear submarine — capable of remaining underwater for three to four months — is a serious deterrent under any circumstances.
"It can carry up to 24 Trident missiles with a range of about 4,600 miles, meaning they can reach quite far, and each missile can carry multiple nuclear warheads," Väli explained.
Väli emphasized the importance of credibility in nuclear deterrence.
"Unlike conventional weapons, nuclear deterrence includes an element of uncertainty — lines aren't drawn too clearly. That's intentional, to make the adversary uncomfortable. We don't know exactly where these submarines are, whether they're really moving where they're said to be, but I believe the message is reaching the Russian leadership," Väli said.
--
Editor: Marcus Turovski, Aleksander Krjukov
