Estonian expert: Ukraine's port strike further gums up Russian oil exports
A dozen Russian shadow fleet vessels are idled in the Gulf of Finland after Ukraine's drone strike on Primorsk port, which expert Raivo Vare says could cost $50 million a day.
The strike late last week hit one of Russia's largest oil ports on the Gulf of Finland, which handles about 60 million metric tons of oil annually and generates roughly $15 billion in revenue.
Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko said the attack caused fires aboard one of the vessels in port and at a pumping station.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported that oil shipments had halted, potentially costing Russia $40 million a day.
On Monday morning, Marine Traffic reported 12 shadow fleet vessels anchored north of Loksa, iincluding oil tankers Palermo (Marshall Islands), Antares I (Aruba), Aura (Panama), Anika (Panama), Velos Forza (Marshall Islands), Grace Leon (Panama), Noctis (Cameroon), Jin Hui (Panama), Azure (Palau), and cargo ships Star Halifax (Liberia), Rob (Aruba), and Kaspar Oldendorff (Portugal).
Estonian Navy maritime ops commander Lt. Cmdr. Ardo Riibon said nothing unusual has been observed in the Baltic Sea so far, but the number of anchored ships may rise.
Estonian economic expert Raivo Vare told ERR that while attacks on Russia's oil refineries push the country to export more, strikes on ports hinder the process.
He said last week's strike on Primorsk should be considered alongside Ukraine's attack on Ust-Luga, since both affect Russia's export capacity in the Baltic Sea.
Ukraine's drone strikes have slashed Russia's domestic refining capacity by up to 30 percent in recent months, Vare said. "Since Russia is now forced to export more crude oil and two-thirds of it goes through the Baltic Sea, any disruption — whether in Primorsk or Ust-Luga — creates problems," he explained.
The Estonian expert said that if loading equipment at Primorsk was hit, the effect could be longer-lasting, causing shadow fleet tankers to pile up in the Baltic.
He agreed with the SBU that the halt in oil loading could cost Russia $40–50 million a day, but acknowledged this would nonetheless have little immediate effect on Russian military operations.
"Ports are tied to exports, and exports are tied to revenue, which means that over time this will have an effect as well," Vares explained, adding that Russia still has enough money for now.
Even so, he noted that the destruction of domestic refining capacity does have a direct impact on the military, and oil shortages are already visible in parts of Russia.
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Editor: Valner Väino, Aili Vahtla
