The conflict between the U.S. and Iran which started in late February, combined with low European gas reserves, has driven prices up 130 percent year‑on‑year, while forecasts remain uncertain.

Around Midsummer this year, the price on the Dutch TTF gas exchange stood at just over €40 per megawatt‑hour. By early August it had risen above €50, and by the end of August it was over €70. On Wednesday, the TTF price climbed to €75 per megawatt‑hour, a level last seen in late 2022 in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Swedbank economist Liis Elmik told "Aktuaalne kaamera" this week that, according to the bank's forecast, gas prices will continue to rise in the coming months. She noted that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with no clear resolution in sight, while European countries are still struggling to secure sufficient gas supplies for the winter. Elmik added that the market remains highly sensitive to further disruptions, and that even temporary supply shocks could push prices significantly higher over the short term.

Kalvi Nõu, head of energy trading at Alexela, told ERR that further price rises are also possible. "Based on what we know today, around €70 per megawatt‑hour could be considered a baseline for winter TTF prices, although it is more realistic to talk about a range of €60–90. If several adverse factors coincide, the price could temporarily rise above €100."

The price rises have been driven primarily by the risk that LNG supplies from the Middle East will get disrupted, again due to the U.S.‑Iran conflict. However if the Strait of Hormuz gets reopened and Qatari LNG exports return to normal, prices could fall rapidly, Nõu said.

Elenger Group CEO Margus Kaasik echoed this, saying that if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it could exert significant downward pressure on gas prices. On the other hand, if the conflict escalates, prices will likely rise further, he said.

Gas prices are also being influenced by low storage levels across Europe. As of Thursday, EU storage facilities were just over 65 percent full — 16 percentage points below the five‑year average. Germany's reserves are at just 53 percent.

"Storage levels remain low, and Europe will need to replenish its reserves significantly before winter," Nõu said. "This renders the European market more price‑sensitive ahead of winter."

Meanwhile Marko Allikson of Baltic Energy Partners warned that larger price spikes could be seen if Germany or the Netherlands filled storage at the last minute "regardless of the price level."

In the Baltic region, the Inčukalns storage facility in Latvia is currently at around 45 percent capacity. While this is lower than usual, both Nõu and Kaasik said the situation is not critical for regional supply, even as high prices remain a risk.

For Estonian consumers, Nõu added the impact depends on individual contracts and when gas was purchased. "For now, there is no reason to draw premature conclusions based on one month's market movements."

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