After Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe's recent visit to Moscow, debate also broke out in Estonia over how seriously to take warnings that Russia may soon plan even broader provocations against NATO countries, including Estonia, up to and including a military attack.

Ratcliffe, who is reportedly close to President Donald Trump, was said to have told the Russians not to target the Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. How seriously should these signals be taken?

I agree with those who tend to think these warnings should be taken very seriously. From Russian leader Vladimir Putin's point of view, a situation has developed with no good way out.

Russia has failed to break Ukraine militarily. It has also failed to undermine European solidarity with Ukraine.

Diplomatically, Russia is likewise stuck. At one point, there were hopes that the United States could help force Ukraine to make concessions favorable to Russia, but not only has that failed, the U.S. position on Ukraine has become more supportive.

What options do Putin and his inner circle have in this situation? Broadly speaking, there are three.

First, they can continue a war of attrition and hope time works in Russia's favor.

There is some logic to that. In Europe's so‑called core countries — France, Germany and the United Kingdom — opinion polls predict gains for populist parties and politicians, some of whom might view Russia's aims more sympathetically than current leaders.

But are Russian citizens really willing to endure a war many dislike indefinitely, and how long will they tolerate it? If that patience breaks one day, what happens then?

The second alternative is agreeing to a cease-fire and making concessions on demands that have so far been completely rigid.

This option also has several weaknesses from the Kremlin's perspective.

If Russia abandons its publicly stated military goals and accepts terms that contradict what Putin has said so far, people in Russia will naturally ask why the war was needed at all.

The president cannot present any agreement as a victory. People in Russia do not all have the memory of a goldfish. Even if an ordinary Russian cannot do much, Putin must still consider those connected to the security services and law enforcement. Would they accept "compromises," or would they think a much harsher approach is needed?

Much has been said about Putin fearing for his own life and that of his family. He may indeed be afraid. Stalin was extremely fearful and paid close attention to his personal security. For Boris Yeltsin, personal guarantees for himself and his family were central when he handed over power.

Russians tend to glorify their rulers and flatter them excessively, but they also curse them and occasionally strike them down. Bloody uprisings have long traditions in Russia. During the 1682 Streltsy uprising, the uncle of the then nine‑year‑old Peter I — Tsarina Natalya's brother, boyar Ivan Naryshkin — was killed before the future ruler's eyes. The killing happened publicly on the Kremlin steps. Naryshkin was pushed down the stairs, speared to death and cut into pieces in front of Peter.

Putin has no guarantee that if he shows weakness, he will not meet the fate of Russia's last tsar, Nicholas II, whom the Bolsheviks killed along with his children and relatives. In Russia, that would hardly be surprising.

During Putin's lifetime, Mikhail Gorbachev's conciliatory policy toward the West led to the 1991 August coup attempt, involving the prime minister, the KGB chairman, the defense minister and the interior minister.

The coup failed partly because the plotters did not act decisively enough and did not eliminate Yeltsin and other democrats. Putin has reason to consider that the security services have also learned from history and might act harshly toward him.

What options does Putin have left?

Casino players who have lost heavily sometimes put their last savings on the table, take desperate risks and lose everything. Putin may decide that everything must be thrown into the fight against Ukraine (and the West), that he must go all the way. That there is nowhere to retreat and no compromises can be made.

If this is his plan and he intends to escalate and expand the war soon, then the army and security services are of course already preparing. It is possible that Americans know more about these plans and discussions than we do.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!