Expert: Ukraine in 2021 and the Baltics today not in a comparable situation
The circumstances surrounding the CIA director's recent visit to Moscow cannot be compared with his predecessor's trip to the Russian capital in 2021, a few months before Russia launched its full-scale war against Ukraine, ICDS head Kristi Raik said.
The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow to warn Russia against attacking NATO, while Politico reported that the CIA chief warned Moscow against escalating tensions with the Baltic states. The reports also noted that then-CIA Director William Burns visited Moscow in November 2021 and sought to persuade Russia not to attack Ukraine, but the war followed nonetheless.
Kristi Raik, director of the Tallinn-based International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), wrote in a post on X that "there is no ground for parallels between Ukraine late 2021 and the Baltic states today. In late 2021, there was clear intelligence showing Russia's preparations to invade. There is no evidence now of Russia preparing to invade the Baltic states."
Some points on parallels being drawn between 2021-2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and 2026 Russian threat to NATO incl. the Baltic states. 1/
— Kristi Raik (@KristiRaik) August 27, 2026
However, this does not mean that Russia does not want to ratchet up tensions in an effort to persuade Western countries to abandon their support for Ukraine, Raik said. She pointed to the fall of 2022, when Ukrainian counteroffensives liberated significant areas in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions and Ukraine seized the strategic initiative, prompting Russia to issue forceful threats.
"Most importantly, both in fall 2022 and now Russia (partly through "leaks" to Western media) threatens with escalation, even use of nuclear weapons. Western countries should not fall into this trap again and let fear of escalation limit their support to Ukraine," Raik wrote.
"This is the context of CIA Director's visit to Moscow. Russia has been escalating already through sabotage acts and influence operations against NATO countries," the expert emphasized.
"One thing that is different now: there was reportedly some intelligence in 2022 suggesting that Russia was preparing for possible use of nukes. Now there is no such reporting, mere psychological pressure and verbal threats playing with western fears."
Nevertheless, the threat of a possible future invasion must be taken seriously and deterrence must remain strong, she added.
"Right now, Russia's attacks aim at stopping Western support to Ukraine. This is obviously in Russia's interest and it remains Europe's vital interest to support Ukraine," Raik concluded.
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Editor: Marcus Turovski
