On Tuesday, it was reported that CIA Director John Ratcliffe had unexpectedly flown to Moscow via Latvia. U.S. media wrote that he held talks with Russian officials, but the subject of the discussions is unknown.

The last time the head of the U.S. intelligence agency visited Moscow was a few months before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The Americans wanted to make it clear to the Russians that their plans were known and to advise them to stop.

Sinisalu, now a visiting professor at the University of Tartu's Johan Skytte Institute, told Vikerraadio's "Uudis+" program on Wednesday that communication between the services of two major powers is normal and could cover many topics, not only Ukraine.

"We should not think that the only issue between Russia and America is the war in Ukraine," he said. Sinisalu said the military conflict between Iran and America may be the top priority, as it also affects U.S. domestic politics.

Sinisalu said if the U.S. had wanted to keep the visit completely secret, it could have done so. "They could have changed planes several times," he explained.

Additionally, the ex-general director said there is no reason to fear that the two countries are making secret agreements with each other, because the level of trust between them is low.

However, the large aircraft on which Ratcliffe flew to Russia should be looked at separately. He explained that both the FBI and CIA chiefs generally use smaller aircraft to travel. Sinisalu concluded that there must be something on board the aircraft or that it is a matter of security.

Prisoner exchange?

"There has been speculation about many different things here, including whether this is a prisoner exchange," he said. Sinisalu noted that this would seem the most logical explanation. At the same time, prisoner exchanges have been carried out much more quickly and have sometimes even been shown live. "We should take this calmly and proceed from the assumption that it is probably something with much simpler content," he said.

Sinisalu added that the CIA director has generally not traveled to Russia in person for prisoner exchanges, but said there could be something accompanying it. "For example, last-minute bargaining over someone that can only be decided at the very highest level, excluding the presidents," he explained.

The former director general said the question is rather how broad a spectrum of issues the major powers discussed. "U.S. intelligence certainly has various pieces of information that are being used in attempts to start Ukraine-Russia negotiations or resolve the situation with Iran," he said.

Sinisalu noted that there has recently been a great deal of speculation about whether Russia is planning some kind of operation against the Baltics or NATO. He said that Russia currently does not have the strength to carry out a frontal attack in the sense of conventional warfare. "That would also be foolish, because it would give the Ukrainians an excellent opportunity to launch a counterattack, since Russia simply does not have the manpower or weaponry," Sinisalu said.

Developments in space should not be forgotten either. "There has been talk of certain satellites monitoring European and American satellites," Sinisalu noted.

Remain calm

The U.S. newspaper The Wall Street Journal reported that Ratcliffe may also have met with President Vladimir Putin to deliver some kind of warning to him. The U.S. has gathered intelligence indicating that Russia is making preparations for a possible mobilization and also plans to test NATO's resolve.

Sinisalu said that Putin generally does not meet with officials of this kind. "Some kind of message may be relayed there, but I find it difficult to believe that he would physically meet with him," he noted.

Sinisalu said talk of testing NATO is psychological pressure aimed at keeping people in Europe anxious and creating domestic political turbulence.

"Some small special forces provocation is possible, but a large-scale war would be seen coming, and NATO's land, sea and airspace along the borders is monitored very closely," he said, adding it is worth remaining calm.

Sinisalu noted that since the meeting did not take place covertly, it cannot be called a secret meeting.

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