Based on the latest results, Reinsalu is preferred by a rounded 25 percent and Kõlvart by 24 percent, with the difference between their support within one percentage point.

Results are from the first half of August in the monthly survey conducted by the NGO Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut and polling firm Norstat Eesti AS.

16 percent would like EKRE leader Martin Helme as prime minister. 12 percent prefer Lavly Perling, leader of Parempoolsed. 10 percent prefer Reform Party leader Kristen Michal, 9 percent Social Democratic Party (SDE) leader Lauri Läänemets, and 6 percent Eesti 200 leader Kristina Kallas.

The share of respondents supporting Helme has declined somewhat (14 percent in July), but no major changes in prime minister preferences have occurred over the past month, Norstat said in a press release.

Among Parempoolsed supporters, Perling is the most popular (80 percent). Among Isamaa supporters, Reinsalu (76 percent). Among Center Party supporters, Kõlvart (75 percent). Among EKRE supporters, Helme (74 percent). Among Reform Party supporters, Michal (60 percent). Among SDE supporters, Läänemets (55 percent).

Respondents were also asked to choose in situations where only two candidates were available. Candidate pairs were formed based on last month's two most popular candidates and the current prime minister. Respondents were asked to choose between the following pairs: Reinsalu vs. Kõlvart, Reinsalu vs. Michal, and Kõlvart vs. Michal. They were asked: "If you could choose only between two candidates, which of them would be a more suitable prime minister for Estonia?"

If choosing between Reinsalu and Michal, 51 percent would prefer Reinsalu and 24 percent Michal. Twenty‑four percent answered "Don't know."

If choosing between Kõlvart and Michal, 45 percent would prefer Kõlvart and 33 percent Michal. Twenty‑two percent answered "Don't know."

If choosing between Reinsalu and Kõlvart, 51 percent would prefer Reinsalu and 32 percent Kõlvart. Seventeen percent answered "Don't know."

Norstat conducted the survey August 10–15, and a total of 1,000 Estonian citizens aged 18 and older responded. To ensure a representative sample, the survey used a combined method — telephone interviews and online surveys, with telephone respondents forming the majority. The sample data were weighted according to the proportional distribution of eligible voters based on key sociodemographic characteristics.

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