Last Thursday, 62 members of the Riigikogu signed in support of nominating Madise. The signatures came from the governing Reform Party and Estonia 200, as well as the opposition Social Democratic Party.

On Tuesday, Reform Party member Mart Võrklaev, who had initially hesitated, said meetings with Madise convinced him to support her both in nomination and in the September 2 vote. That gave Madise 63 expected votes. She still needed five more to reach the required threshold.

On Tuesday evening, after several hours of discussion, Isamaa announced it would also support Madise in the presidential election. Isamaa's parliamentary group has eight members, and three additional MPs have joined the party, giving it a total of 11 votes.

Simple math shows Madise should therefore have 74 votes. Electing the president requires at least 68 votes. Isamaa politician Kalle Muuli declared triumphantly on social media that "it is Isamaa that will choose Estonia's next president, because it depends on Isamaa whether Madise gets at least 68 votes in the presidential election."

It is also possible that some unaffiliated MPs (Tõnis Mölder, Kersti Sarapuu, Enn Eesmaa), who are not tied to any party and have not clearly expressed a preference, may support Madise. Social Democrat Züleyxa Izmailova has not announced her final decision either. She told ERR on Tuesday evening that she would not sign for nominating Madise or any other candidate. How she will vote on September 2 is unknown. It is also unclear how the so‑called window‑seat MPs (especially Kalev Stoicescu), who wanted to support Tiit Land but may not be able to nominate him if he fails to gather the required 21 signatures, will vote. Madise could pick up one or two votes from that group as well.

At the same time, it must be remembered that the vote is secret, and signatures on nomination papers are not binding commitments. As Võrklaev said on Tuesday: "In the end, each member of the Riigikogu chooses the president individually, according to their conscience, in a secret ballot — not one or another parliamentary group."

Madise's supporters still wondered on Tuesday whether the Reform Party's own votes would hold. Some pointed out that more MPs might leave the party in the fall, especially to join Isamaa, which could reduce Madise's support in the secret ballot. That concern arose when Isamaa had not yet decided whether to support Madise or Land. Now that Isamaa has announced its support for Madise, that fear is much smaller.

But even Isamaa's own votes cannot be taken for granted. Before the party's decision, Isamaa politician Riina Solman said the party's votes were split evenly between Madise and Land. The hours‑long discussion confirmed that reaching a unified position was not easy. And it is worth remembering that the September 2 vote is secret.

For historical context, here are the vote totals presidents have received when elected in the Riigikogu:

1992 – Lennart Meri 59 votes. At the time, if no candidate received more than half of the votes cast in the popular vote, the Riigikogu elected the president. Meri received 59 votes and Arnold Rüütel 31, and 59 was enough under the law then in force.

Since 1996, the current presidential election procedure has applied. In 1996, 2001 and 2006, the Riigikogu failed to elect a president, and the choice was made by the electoral college composed of Riigikogu members and representatives of local councils.

2011 – Toomas Hendrik Ilves 73 votes. Ilves and Indrek Tarand faced off in the Riigikogu. Ilves received 73 votes and Tarand 25, and Ilves was re‑elected.

2016 – Kersti Kaljulaid 81 votes. No candidate received enough support in the Riigikogu, so the election moved to the electoral college. The college also failed to elect a president in its first two rounds, and the election returned to the Riigikogu. There, Kaljulaid was elected with 81 votes as the sole candidate.

2021 – Alar Karis 72 votes. Karis received 63 votes in the first round, which was not enough — he needed at least five more. In the second round the next day, Karis received 72 votes. Notably, the first round had 18 unmarked ballots, while the second had only eight. At the time, the press speculated that Isamaa may have withheld support in the first round for tactical reasons.

Thus, the Riigikogu vote record in presidential elections is held by Kersti Kaljulaid with 81 votes. Madise will find it difficult to surpass that, but it is not impossible.

EKRE's nine MPs do not plan to vote at all, and some window‑seat MPs will likely do the same. The Estonian Center Party (with eight MPs including recent arrivals) declared its support for Tiit Land, but if they fail to nominate him — if they cannot gather the required 21 signatures — they may not vote for Madise. The same applies to the window‑seat MPs who favored nominating Land.

Stoicescu also supporting Madise

A member of the Riigikogu, Kalev Stoicescu, who recently joined the Parempoolsed party, promised to vote for Ülle Madise, the only officially nominated candidate in the presidential election.

Stoicescu gave his signature this week — together with Meelis Kiili and Leo Kunnas — to nominate Tiit Land as a candidate. However, Land did not receive the required 21 signatures needed to run.

"Most likely I would have supported Ülle Madise anyway. But since there is no other candidate now, of course I support Ülle Madise's candidacy. That is already 100 percent," Stoicescu said on Friday.

This article was updated on 21 August with MP Kalev Stoicescu saying Madise has his support.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!