Speaking to "Vikerhommik," Jüristo, head of think tank the Liberal Citizen Foundation (SALK), said the departure of a high-profile MP from the party on Monday gives the lie to claims the Reform Party is a united team.

"Looking at what has happened in the last 24 or 48 hours, it seems it wasn't quite that unified after all. There are definitely tensions, which are visible from afar and have been seen several times before. If we recall [former Tallinn deputy mayor] Pärtel-Peeter Pere's departure, he spoke quite openly on a whole range of issues, and also pointed to those same tensions and questions that Meelis Kiili also highlighted. With that aspect, I think there is no doubt dispute or tensions exist, and that is entirely natural given the current state of the party and its prospects," Jüristo said.

At the same time, while there has been much public speculation about replacing Michal, most likely via a motion of no-confidence from his own side, Jüristo said this is extremely unlikely and too risky at the current stage.

"The idea that someone from within the Reform Party would now, seven months before the elections, throw down the gauntlet to Michal and try to forcibly remove him — frankly, it seems to me that that train has already left the station. Whoever that individual might be, they would be taking a very big risk going into elections which the Reform Party, in its current state, cannot realistically win, no matter who is leading," Jüristo went on.

Jüristo: No other leading Reform member likely to want to steer party through electoral defeat

The list of potential new leaders would not be too long, Jüristo said. Former education minister Liina Kersna has been named as an option. "There have been previous references and discussions about Liina Kersna's name as a possible candidate. That list is not very long. Hanno Pevkur has already been leader of the Reform Party once, but many remember that time and may not see it as a fresh move worth considering now, since his leadership did not turn out as hoped. Among other well-known names is Urmas Paet, but I can't imagine whether he would have the ambition for it," Jüristo said.
Beyond that, speculation about names is "completely pointless," he said, adding: "It is not about whether that name exists or not — the situation is simply such that even if that name existed, it would be very difficult in the current circumstances to expect anything substantially new from a change like that."

The recent departures — as well as Kiili, Riigikogu National Defense Committee chair Kalev Stoicescu announced Sunday evening he was leaving Reform's coalition partner Eesti 200 — are likely not the last, either, Jüristo added

"I think it quite likely that some more people may move. Various names have been circulated and referred to in public, and they are likely not from Isamaa's ranks, who currently have no major reason to move anywhere. But certainly among Eesti 200 and Reform Party ranks there are some so-called loose rocks. Whether and when someone makes a decision, I am not going to forecast now," he said.

This will in any case happen sooner rather than later and likely in the fall, giving the timing of the March 2027 general election. "Figuratively speaking, campaign posters are starting to go to print. And if someone pushes to get onto another list, other parties' lists are also starting to lock into place, so there isn't much time left to decide."

As well as the Riigikogu elections next year, September brings the presidential election, held first at the Riigikogu. With the departure of Stoicescu and Kiili, the Reform-Eesti 200 coalition is now in a minority at 50 seats in the 101-seat chamber, though as a minimum of 68 votes are needed to elect a president, votes from opposition or independent MPs would have been required to elect a government-approved head of state in any case.

Reform, once regularly the highest-rating party in the land, in recent months and amid a soaring rise in the cost of living has fallen to fifth place behind the Center Party, Isamaa, the Social Democrats and, albeit narrowly, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), according to most pollsters.

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