The market price of electricity is unpredictable, but one thing is clear: electricity is more expensive during cold and dark periods. Last winter, the situation became difficult for customers buying electricity at market price in January and February, when price spikes repeatedly rose to several dozen cents per kilowatt‑hour. The average price in both January and February was 15.4 cents per kilowatt‑hour (without VAT).

In 2025, only one month — February — had an average price above 15 cents per kilowatt‑hour.

No one knows exactly what the coming winter will bring, because as electricity sellers themselves say, the market price is always unpredictable and that is nothing new. And if you think about it, the market would not make sense if the price were known in advance.

But ahead of this winter, there are more factors than usual that influence electricity prices and make them even harder to predict, electricity sellers said.

"This year we can expect periodically high peaks due to red flags on global markets, and futures prices reflect this — they are at similar levels to last winter or even slightly higher. But in the end, this is crystal‑ball gazing because predicting the coming winter's weather today is impossible," said Ignitis Eesti head Timo Tatar.

In such a situation, the question arises: is it wiser for a household to choose a price package tied more closely to the market or one that offers greater independence from market fluctuations? There is no clear answer, because the best solution depends on how a person uses electricity.

"If electricity costs are not a major part of the household budget — for example, someone lives in an apartment and consumption is low — then it does not make much difference whether you choose a fixed or market package. The financial difference is small. Choose what feels right. You might win or lose, but the stakes are not high," Tatar said.

With a heat pump, fixed price is better

But if electricity costs are a major expense — for example, if a heat pump is the main or only heating source — then a fixed price is recommended because it provides predictability and helps avoid large bills caused by price spikes, he said. "You might pay more than the market at times, but you might also pay significantly less. For you, cost management is what matters," Tatar said.

And if consumption can be significantly controlled — for example, charging an electric car, or having an alternative heating source, battery storage or other flexible consumption — then a market‑price package makes sense because cheap hours or periods can be used to your advantage, Tatar said.

Enefit board member Tiit Hõbejõgi also said each person should choose an electricity package based on their risk tolerance and consumption habits.

"A fixed‑price package is best for those who do not adjust their consumption according to market prices. It is also more suitable for those who value predictable costs and want to avoid possible price spikes," he said.

"A market‑price package may be suitable for those who are willing to accept price fluctuations and can shift their consumption to cheaper hours," Hõbejõgi added.

Winter determines which choice is sensible

Looking back at previous winters, there is no single answer to whether fixed or market‑price packages were cheaper for consumers, Hõbejõgi said. First, it again depended on the household's consumption: if electricity was used more during peak hours, fixed‑price customers saved money; those who managed their consumption more actively benefited from market‑price packages.

"Looking back, there have been winters when the average market‑price package cost was lower than fixed prices, but there have also been periods when fixed‑price customers avoided very high spikes. For example, last winter, due to exceptionally cold months, fixed prices stayed lower than the average market price," Hõbejõgi said.

And it is important to remember that the goal of a fixed‑price package is not always to achieve the lowest possible average price, but to provide price security and predictability, he added.

"The advantage of a market‑price package may appear over a longer period, but its users must be ready for potentially higher bills during winter months," Hõbejõgi said.

"Choosing between fixing the price or staying with the market price should primarily be seen as a risk‑management decision. More and more of our customers are treating it exactly that way," Tatar said.

Alexela: people increasingly prefer fixed prices

At Alexela, the fluctuating electricity price has already pushed customers to prefer fixed‑price packages more since spring, said Alexela residential segment manager Ester Ausmees.

"In June and July this year, nearly 20 percent more new customers chose fixed‑price electricity packages compared to a year earlier. We see the same trend among existing customers, who increasingly prefer price security," Ausmees said.

As of June, about 60 percent of electricity packages chosen by Alexela customers had fixed prices.

"What is interesting is that usually interest in price security increases at the end of summer and beginning of fall, but this year we saw it already in spring — in April and May," Ausmees said.

She said this suggests people's expectations have changed: although a low price is still very important, customers are also looking for certainty that next month's electricity bill will not be shocking.

"In practice, we see that people have become more aware and want to decide for themselves how much they want to risk with electricity price fluctuations," Ausmees said.

Because the coming winter is expected to be more unpredictable in electricity prices than before, Ausmees recommended reviewing your electricity package before winter. "Not necessarily to change anything, but to make sure your current solution is still the right one," she said.

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