At the beginning of this year, social scientists from the University of Tartu led a large-scale survey of Ida-Viru County residents to gain insight into people's expectations for the future and their concerns. Below, we highlight several issues that are important for shaping the county's future and that political parties hoping to appeal to local voters in the upcoming elections should keep in mind.

The survey, conducted at the start of the year and involving more than 1,200 respondents, provided a representative snapshot of the mood among Ida-Viru County residents. The findings confirmed that preserving a sense of normalcy and strengthening the region's ties with the rest of Estonia remain major challenges.

Many residents of Ida-Viru County feel that the changes of recent years have had a largely negative impact on their daily lives, undermining their confidence in future opportunities. While the media and the political arena are consumed by debates over ideology and who should serve as mayor, local people's concerns lie elsewhere. For example, there is a shortage of dentists and psychiatric care. In Ida-Viru County, the dividing lines in people's personal aspirations and attitudes toward change do not run solely along language or ethnic lines and appealing only to "one's own side" is not enough.

As Estonia finalizes its national plan for the European Union's new budget period and prepares for the upcoming Riigikogu elections, it is also necessary to ask uncomfortable questions. How can policymakers reach people who are uncertain whether to remain in their home region and have not yet decided whether to stay or leave? What specific forms of engagement and dialogue can reduce polarization and increase trust? How can policymakers avoid a situation in which treating Ida-Viru County primarily through the lens of security policy creates more "internal outsiders" and deepens the divide between "us" and "them"? What decisions and measures can reduce the vulnerability of local communities when the region is affected by external shocks?

Drawing on the survey findings, we examine several issues below that have received less attention than jobs, industrial investment and the transition to Estonian-language education. We also offer recommendations for policymakers and local community leaders.

The principle of health in all policies

Between 2004 and 2022, self-rated health improved among people in Estonia, including residents of Ida-Viru County. However, an analysis of data from the Estonian Health Behavior Survey of the Adult Population shows that income and employment inequality have increased significantly across the country. Both factors strongly influence how people assess their own health. The situation is further compounded by the survey finding that one-quarter of Ida-Viru County residents have generalized anxiety disorder. Nearly half experience mild anxiety, while one-quarter of survey respondents are predisposed to moderate depression.

The economic and social changes associated with the transition can create uncertainty that adversely affects both mental and physical health. For example, the restructuring of the 1990s had a dramatic impact on the health of people in Estonia. Life expectancy for both men and women fell by several years, with those having lower levels of education suffering the most. Those mistakes must not be repeated in Ida-Viru County today.

In interviews, healthcare experts identified limited access to mental health services — especially those for children — and dental care as particularly serious problems. They also pointed to residents' low level of health literacy and limited capacity for self-management. The experts emphasized that health promotion efforts must be adapted to the local language and culture.

These shortcomings can be addressed through a strong healthcare system focused on prevention. Above all, access to mental health care must be improved and the stigma associated with seeking help must be reduced, as it can discourage people from using these services. More mental health professionals are needed. They must be trained more quickly and supported in every possible way so that these services are available to those who need them.

Alongside retraining and employment programs in Ida-Viru County, health and mental well-being counseling should also be offered. Because people's health is closely linked to their income and employment, efforts should also focus on improving residents' socioeconomic conditions and reducing uncertainty. Adopting a "Health in All Policies" approach would encourage policymakers to systematically assess the health impacts of all major regional development and transition policy decisions.

Starter package for young people

Recent survey data shows that young people in Ida-Viru County are voting with their feet. Nearly one in two residents ages 18 to 24 plans to seek opportunities elsewhere. This likely reflects a belief that other places offer better prospects for education, employment and starting an independent life. For young people in Ida-Viru County, it also matters in what linguistic, cultural and value-based environment those opportunities exist and what the future holds for the county itself.

What can be done to reduce youth outmigration or at least ensure that those who currently plan to stay actually do so? Young people need a coherent local education-to-employment pathway that integrates vocational or higher education, internships, a first job, counseling and long-term career prospects. It is also important to expand preparatory and remedial education to improve not only language skills but also other essential knowledge and competencies. A first job and affordable housing should be combined into a single starter package. In addition, young people need a vibrant public space that supports initiative, culture and opportunities for self-fulfillment.

Local governments, the state and employers must jointly determine how to provide comprehensive support for young people in Ida-Viru County as they begin independent adult lives and what tools should be used to achieve that goal.

Fragile communities in need of spokespeople

Experience to date shows that community-led initiatives in Ida-Viru County are more fragile than elsewhere in Estonia. At the same time, the survey indicates that people there are willing to help one another. More than half of residents have voluntarily and spontaneously helped neighbors or other members of their community.

However, only about half as many people participate in organized volunteer work or civic organizations. This suggests that people's willingness to support one another does not often develop into sustained collective action. One of Ida-Viru County's distinguishing characteristics is its internal diversity: levels of civic engagement, trust and the challenges communities face vary considerably across different parts of the county.

To turn informal mutual assistance into organized community action, support must be provided to those willing to initiate and lead such efforts. Ida-Viru County has relatively few experienced community leaders and those who do exist are often overstretched. New leaders are discouraged by the significant responsibility that comes with project-based funding, as unsuccessful projects can result in financial liabilities. For that reason, new initiatives need low-risk seed funding and simple microgrants that do not carry the threat of repayment if a project falls short. More stable, long-term support is also needed to retain community leaders and develop the next generation of local organizers.

Dignified work and study

Two-thirds of Ida-Viru County residents believe that the ongoing economic changes will worsen their chances of finding suitable employment in the future. At the same time, most people who are currently employed are satisfied with their jobs.

In the eyes of Ida-Viru County residents, a good, dignified job is defined above all by security. That means confidence that one's job will remain stable, colleagues will be supportive and the work itself will not endanger one's health. Having a say in how work is organized and maintaining a healthy work-life balance are also important. In other words, people are not motivated to devote time and effort to learning new skills simply for the sake of any job or retraining program. What motivates them is the prospect of securing a stable, dignified job.

Systematic mentoring can help strengthen the sense of security surrounding a current or future job. Support should be provided for instructors and educational programs that allow people to study while working. Employers should also be encouraged to value lifelong learning, for example by linking eligibility for support measures to employee training.

Our previous research shows that employers in the region tend to be skeptical about long-term training for their employees. One-third expect workers who are already employed to find the time and resources to improve their skills on their own. Only then are they willing to discuss promotions and pay raises. Supporting entrepreneurship is another promising approach, as it allows people to create jobs that suit their own needs. Interest in entrepreneurship is also considerable in the region.

Interest in entrepreneurship

According to the survey, about 13 percent of Ida-Viru County's working-age population is currently engaged in entrepreneurship, including as sole proprietors. Interest, however, is much higher: One-third of residents ages 18 to 34 and one-sixth of those ages 35 to 54 plan to start a business. To do so, they primarily need suitable premises and training.

Most respondents did not yet have a clearly defined business idea. Instead, they wanted the opportunity to explore what might be a good fit and what could find a market. For example, many respondents repeatedly mentioned social services as a potential field. A region with an aging population has growing demand for a wide range of services, meaning there are market niches to be filled. According to the survey, many young people would also like to start businesses in engineering. Combining engineering education with entrepreneurial experience could therefore provide young people with additional motivation.

Ida-Viru Country as a critical case of Estonia's balanced development

For many years, Ida-Viru County was perceived as an internal outsider that could simply be ignored. The investments and attention brought by the Just Transition Fund (JTF) put the county back in the spotlight. This time, however, it was not because it was seen as unusual or problematic, but because of its untapped development potential.

The fund directed substantial investment into businesses. Universities launched new academic programs and a number of research groups began work with the aim of strengthening the local innovation ecosystem. Regional initiatives also supported community activities with millions of euros in funding. The benefits of such efforts are long-term. Completing a university degree takes three to five years, while developing new technologies requires even more time. Although the JTF initiated many important developments, one question remains: What happens when the funding ends?

As work proceeds on Estonia's new national plan, there are signs that the special attention paid to Ida-Viru County will also fade once the JTF funding period comes to an end. The proposed "polycentric Estonia" initiative aims to direct more investment outside Harju County. That objective is, in itself, commendable.

At the same time, the discussion increasingly suggests that there are struggling peripheral regions elsewhere in Estonia as well and that there is nothing particularly unique about Ida-Viru County. It is true that Valga, Võru and Hiiu counties — as well as every other county in Estonia — deserve care and attention. Even so, Ida-Viru County's distinctiveness extends well beyond differences in language and culture. It also encompasses the region's unique socioeconomic characteristics.

Investing in Ida-Viru County's diversity and social resilience strengthens the resilience of Estonia as a whole, much like reinforcing a critical link in a chain makes the entire chain stronger. A vision of the region's industrial future in which only a handful of factories are built and forced to recruit workers from abroad because efforts to develop the local workforce have failed is uncomfortably reminiscent of what happened in the 1950s.

If the region is supported and developed strategically, the benefits will extend to all of Estonia. Directing additional resources to Ida-Viru County and other areas along the country's eastern border would create added value for the entire nation by increasing its resilience and capacity to withstand crises.

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