This is a flash estimate, which also reveals a working-day-adjusted GDP rise of 0.4 percent between Q1 and Q2 2026.

"According to the GDP flash estimate, the economic recovery continued in the second quarter at a pace similar to the growth seen in the first quarter," commented Robert Müürsepp, Statistics Estonia's national accounts service manager.

Economist: Figure for the quarter likely to change

Swedbank's chief economist Tõnu Mertsina stated the 2.1 percent GDP growth met the bank's expectations, though added this number could change significantly later.

Current estimates show GDP bottomed out in the first quarter of last year, meaning that the Estonian economy has been growing for the last five quarters.

"According to preliminary estimates, the GDP volume in the second quarter of this year reached close to the 2022 average, but was still three percent below the peak in the last quarter of 2021," Mertsina said.

"The flash estimate of GDP does not yet give us a more accurate picture of which factors supported economic growth the most in the second quarter and which ones hindered it. The growth was probably mainly driven by domestic demand, especially private consumption, as well as government spending and investment," he went on.

Swedbank's card payment data shows total private consumption grew rapidly in the second quarter, indicating that people are spending more of their money outside of retail, which accounts for nearly a third of total private consumption.

Statistics Estonia says it will be releasing official Q2 2026 GDP data, which takes into account all economic transactions, on August 31.

Initial data used in the flash estimate are based on statistical models and may not cover certain major transactions that could have a major impact on the overall indicators, due to the small size of Estonia's economy.

More detailed information is available from Statistics Estonia's website here and here.

Editor's note: This piece was updated to include comment from Tõnu Mertsina.

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