Madise herself has not formally given her consent to run, but she was proposed earlier in the summer and ahead of the formal nomination process next week.

The reason for not giving her consent could be avoiding declaring her intention until she can count on a viable number of votes.

The two coalition parties, the Reform Party and Eesti 200, along with the opposition Social Democrats (SDE) have said they would back a Madise candidacy. Meanwhile the Center Party and Isamaa have held out on openly backing Madise, but have not ruled her out either.

Estonia's presidents are elected by the Riigikogu and with a two-thirds majority (68 or more) at the 101-seat chamber needed, a candidate needs to get votes from both coalition and opposition parties, to become head of state. Current head of state Alar Karis is not seeking re-election.

While neither Reform, Eesti 200 and SDE have not taken any further concrete steps yet, they are also pointing the finger at Isamaa and the Center Party, both in opposition, for apparently delaying things.

The other opposition party, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), has fielded its founder and former leader, Mart Helme. This means pressure is mounting on the remaining five Riigikogu parties to coalesce around a presidential candidate — or risk a fragmented field with no one getting elected in the first instance.

With the nomination period opening August 21, the Riigikogu's Council of Elders, which has the final say on candidates if Riigikogu votes are inconclusive, remains uncalled. This means the fate of Madise's potential candidacy rests on answers from Isamaa and the Center Party.

SDE leader Lauri Läänemets has called for the Council of Elders, comprising the heads of each of the Riigikogu party factions, currently six, plus the Riigikogu speaker and their two deputies, to convene this week. This would, Läänemets said, help in finding common ground, and several other politicians have made the same calls for the council to meet, he added.

"The coalition is afraid of something, otherwise they would convene it. I just haven't quite understood what they're afraid of," Läänemets said. The current government's leadership has consistently been characterized by a lack of decisiveness, the SDE leader said.

Riigikogu Speaker Lauri Hussar (Eesti 200) however claimed that Läänemets had neither called nor written to him about convening the Council of Elders. "He should check his inbox," Hussar added.

"I'm afraid that, in the end, we won't get an answer from Isamaa or the Center Party before the Council of Elders meets," Läänemets went on. Backing for Madise could result in a clear presidential candidate and would permit the election to proceed with a specific nominee, he noted.

The election itself takes place in early September; Hussar said that the current month, July, is for screening candidates and identifying the strongest. With July nearly over, August is the month for formally nominating candidates; September for electing the next president.

"Everything is going ahead according to that timetable, and in August the Riigikogu's Council of Elders will also meet to discuss possible candidates," he said.

Hussar maintained that candidates should be formally nominated by the second or third week of August, meaning the Council of Elders must meet ahead of that, notwithstanding Läänemets's calls for the council to meet this week already.

Eesti 200 leader and Education Minister Kristina Kallas said some party leaders are likely not interested in agreeing on a joint candidate. While SDE, the Reform Party and Eesti 200 have all expressed support for Madise, neither Isamaa nor Center have given a clear answer. Kallas said she doubted the leaders of those two parties would agree on a presidential candidate in any case, even at a party leaders' meeting on the matter. "Not every party is interested in electing the president in the Riigikogu," she said.

"The prime minister has called the Center Party leader and discussed supporting Ülle Madise," Kallas said. Center leader Mihhail Kõlvart's response had reportedly been vague, Kallas said, adding phone conversations between party leaders have gone on, so she expects clearer answers from the Center Party.

Kallas added that this was likely with the March 2027 Riigikogu election in mind – those two parties are using the presidential election for some early campaigning work, she said, expressing a hope Center and Isamaa will demonstrate statesmanship and be willing to reach an agreement on a joint presidential candidate.

"Given that Ülle Madise enjoys very strong public support, it would be a very statesmanlike move on their part if they set aside their party or other interests and were willing to reach an agreement," Kallas said.

Reform Party parliamentary group leader Õnne Pillak said she too had urged the two parties to cooperate. "It's enough if they make a decision internally and have the courage to say publicly whether they support Madise or not," Pillak said, noting party leaders do not need to meet for their parties to state their preference.

"In the spring we had an expanded Council of Elders meeting, with most party leaders around the table, but unfortunately it ended with Isamaa engaging in political games," Pillak said. She said she has greater faith in parties making their own decisions independently, but remains optimistic that the parties will find a unifying candidate in the end anyway, adding hopefully this will be Madise.

Another variable is independent MPs. There are an unusually high number of these at 18 – mostly MPs who left a party group and/or the party itself, though they may still vote with that party.

Läänemets said Madise could get the support of several independent MPs to add on to the backing of his party (9 seats), Reform (37 seats) and Eesti 200 (13 seats). The SDE leader qualified this by saying that since there is considerable confusion within the governing coalition, especially with the Reform Party, not all votes can be counted on there.

"For this reason it would be good to know what both Isamaa and the Center Party think," Läänemets said. Again, those two parties have not yet formed a position on any candidate, but if the Council of Elders were to meet now, that would be a great opportunity for the two parties to clearly state their stances. This in turn would make Madise more likely to state her intentions, too.

"If they happened to support Ülle Madise, then a proposal backed by a majority in the Riigikogu could create a situation in which it would be easier for Madise to say yes," Läänemets said.

Isamaa leader Urmas Reinsalu said his party has not ruled any candidates in or out, adding that he has repeatedly called on both the coalition and the speaker to convene the Council of Elders without delay, precisely to discuss the parties' positions and expectations.

Reinsalu said the Isamaa group last week invited five people who have been mentioned in the context of a presidential candidacy to meet with the party. As well as Madise, these were former Defense League commander Riho Ühtegi, piano-making entrepreneur Indrek Laul, diplomat Maive Rute and Foreign Ministry Secretary General Jonatan Vseviov. The latter, along with Madise, has indicated they are not candidates at this stage whereas the other three have expressed a stronger desire.

Reinsalu noted that the information received from Ühtegi, Rute and Laul is something that should also be discussed by the Council of Elders, and called on the other political forces to keep an open mind and not to rule out any candidate prematurely.

Center Party vice-chair Lauri Laats said Madise has been included on his party's list of possible presidential candidates. He explained that Madise would certainly be a worthy candidate, but her candidacy will only be considered once she officially enters the race.

Laats said that if Madise's condition were that she must first secure 68 votes before agreeing to run, that would amount to appointing a president, rather than electing one. "I don't think that would be the right way to elect the president of the Republic of Estonia," he said.

With the nomination period opening August 21 and the Council of Elders still uncalled, the standoff leaves Estonia's presidential election unresolved — and the clock ticking.

Nominations for candidacy close three days later, on August 24. You can read more on figures named as potential candidates in recent months here.

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