The latest survey shows Isamaa has a support rating of 24 percent and is followed by the Center Party (20 percent), which is also in opposition. Reform's rating has risen from a record low to 14 percent, putting the prime minister's party level with the Social Democrats and EKRE.

"If you ask how certain people are about choosing Isamaa, that certainty is not as high as with some other parties. In other words, if there were a credible alternative, Isamaa's position would not be as strong. But at the moment, it really seems that for those 24 per cent there is no other alternative: for the fifth consecutive month, Isamaa has remained at 24 per cent," Voog told "Aktuaalne kaamera."

Reform Party has now increased its support for the second month in a row.

"As the prime minister's party, a great deal depends on what happens in the Estonian economy. If the positive trends really continue and consumers feel more confident, that could provide a favourable backdrop for improving their rating. It also depends on what they themselves do, and how united they are internally," Voog explained.

Reform Party secretary general Kristo Enn Vaga listed several policies it believes have helped the situation.

He said: "In recent weeks, the Riigikogu passed a supplementary budget allocating additional funding to strengthen the state border, develop AI and also support more vulnerable groups. Likewise, at the beginning of the year a uniform tax system was introduced and the so-called tax hump was abolished. That has now actually reached the wallets of Estonian people and families, and electricity prices are also down. Everything is moving in a better direction."

At the same time, the Social Democrats slipped 2 percentage points in the latest poll.

"The support bases of the Reform Party and the Social Democrats overlap to some extent. To potential supporters, these parties are fairly similar, depending on which one happens to stand out more at a given moment. The one that is more visible tends to have the somewhat higher rating," Voog said.

Social Democratic deputy chair Riina Sikkut said public profile plays a part.

"In summer, it tends to be the case that the governing parties are more visible, while support for opposition parties slips back a little or remains stable. I don't see any new trend there. We'll see whether autumn, the budget debates and perhaps also the presidential election bring any change in the dynamics," she said.

The share of respondents who were unable to name a preferred party also increased slightly, reaching exactly 25 percent in July.

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