The Foresight Center's latest report notes that demographic decline will leave a smaller generation carrying a growing share of economic and social responsibility in Estonia, even as mental health challenges are hindering young people's decision-making abilities, social involvement and paths to independence.

Foresight Center expert Eneli Kindsiko explained that youth is an increasingly long and uncertain life stage today, with outcomes shaped by uneven playing fields in terms of mental health, education, employment and the cost of living.

"The starting point is also becoming more and more unequal for young people, depending very much on their family background," she added.

Research shows that while youth aged 16 and up generally have the cognitive skills necessary to make complex decisions, their self-control and resilience under pressure are still developing, which can affect real-world choices.

More chances to decide — and make mistakes

Foresight Center director Tea Danilov said youth need more opportunities in safe environments to practice making decisions, making mistakes and taking responsibility, adding that schools could serve as one such environment.

"For example, young people could have more say in decisions at school and on school-related matters, whether it's the start time of the school day or the menu in the school cafeteria," Danilov said.

She added that studies confirm that lowering the voting age — which was reduced to 16 for local government elections in 2015, but remains 18 in all other instances — is reasonable and necessary, combined with ensuring balanced information is available.

The report says young people today have more formal rights and opportunities than previous generations, but many feel their input has little real impact.

Inaccessible mental healthcare

It highlights worsening mental health as a key barrier to independence, noting that Estonian youth report higher levels of sadness and depression than peers in neighboring countries. More than a third of girls and about a fifth of boys aged 11–15 feel sad or depressed weekly, according to cited data.

Researchers also point to long waiting lists and unequal access to mental health services in Estonia, meaning many do not receive timely help.

"If a young person lacks psychological coping skills and a sense of security, they may not be able to take advantage of existing educational, employment or participation opportunities," Kindisko said, emphasizing that this can delay life decisions and increase dependence on family, school or other support systems.

The impact of algorithms

The report also warns that digital platforms and artificial intelligence are increasingly shaping young people's autonomy by influencing information, attention and behavior, which in turn impacts their relationships, job opportunities, engagement, self-expression and even worldview.

Access to technology, it adds, does not automatically translate into independence, as youth's attention, self-image and even decision-making remain strongly susceptible to algorithm-driven systems.

Click here to read more about the Foresight Center's latest report and broader research on youth autonomy and decision-making.

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