When a doctor tells a patient that smoking increases the risk of cancer, they are not a "scaremonger." When a climate expert explains what happens when carbon is released into the atmosphere, they are not performing magic tricks. Naming risks is, in fact, a sign of responsibility.

The discussion concerns media reactions to the speech Kristen Michal delivered at the Reform Party's general assembly. It has been compared to Orbánism, cheap behavior, and even a conjurer pulling a monster out of a hat.

On one point I agree with the journalists — and it occurred to me as well while listening to the speech — that the poor octopus did get a bit of a rough deal in the prime minister's remarks. But as for the accusation of fearmongering… The alternative would be to pretend that it doesn't matter who leads Estonia next. That all parties are the same, that elections don't matter, that politics will be the same regardless. That is simply not true.

Since the comparison to Viktor Orbán has already been made, let's look at what happened in Hungary. It clearly shows how quickly democratic space can shrink when populists gain power.

The claim that the EKRE–Isamaa–Center Party coalition — EKREIKE 2.0 — coming to power is merely theoretical, because Isamaa and the Center Party could govern together, is naïve self-soothing. Elections are still quite far away, and all parties have a long way to go to win them. As of now, everyone has exactly zero votes.

Still, I dare to predict that Isamaa and the Center Party will need a third partner to form a government, and in that case they would immediately turn to the Helme clan. To believe that this EKREIKE 2.0 would behave any differently or be less populist than during its previous "golden age" is self-deception. By "golden age," I of course mean the time when Jüri Ratas was prime minister in a government with Mart Helme, and the prime minister's car was sagging under the weight of alcohol supplies.

History offers plenty of examples of countries where people at some point looked around in surprise and asked how on earth they had let their freedom slip away. By the time that realization comes, things have usually gone too far — heads have rolled and clocks have been turned back. Isamaa party Chairman Urmas Reinsalu constantly goes around with a whole catalog of promises about what will be reversed if they return to power. Given the EKREIKE 2.0 lineup and the attitudes of its members, there is a high likelihood that our security policy, energy policy, and pension policy would all be reinterpreted. Our private life choices would certainly also come under attack.

Security policy. The current government has set a target of five percent of GDP for defense spending. This includes developing the defense industry and producing ammunition domestically. Could these decisions be reversed? Certainly. EKRE — and the Center Party as well — have never hidden their view that NATO is not reliable and that relations with Russia should be friendlier. Estonia has been one of the clearest voices in supporting Ukraine, imposing sanctions on Russia, and maintaining European solidarity.

Are these values self-evident in the EKREIKE worldview? There is no need to doubt that they are not. If even the Ukrainian flag cannot be tolerated in Estonia's public space, what hope is there for concrete support?

Energy policy. The EKREIKE trio has clearly expressed a desire to return to oil shale. In doing so, they are prepared to sacrifice energy security for some jobs for miners in Ida-Virumaa. Does that serve Estonia as a whole? Certainly not.

The Reform Party, as we recall, returned to power at the beginning of 2021 when EKREIKE collapsed under the weight of corruption allegations. One of the first decisions of Kaja Kallas's government was to convene a nuclear energy working group, which since April 2021 has been working to make it possible to build a nuclear power plant in Estonia. This is the most important direction for ensuring our energy security. Disconnecting from Russian energy grids and synchronizing with the European frequency area are also steps the Reform Party government has led despite significant bureaucratic and political obstacles.

Pensions. The previous EKREIKE government will go down in history for dismantling Estonia's pension system. The next one hasn't exactly been secretive about plans to halt state contributions to the second pension pillar. There is discussion of freezing pensions and tying pension levels to the number of children and grandchildren. It would not be surprising at all if the so-called "tax hump", also known as bracket creep, were brought back — or perhaps it would be more accurate to call it a "revenge hump"?

Value issues. The Reform Party has made social cohesion, respect for minority rights, and adherence to European law a priority. Implementing the Registered Partnership Act and opening marriage to all couples are concrete measures that EKRE has promised to reverse first. This is not speculation — it's in their platform. In place of marriage equality, they offer the concept of an indissoluble marriage.

One criticism of Kristen Michal's speech was the lack of a list of concrete achievements. Once again, I agree with the journalists, and with this piece I am at least partially addressing that shortcoming.

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