In recent weeks, there has been a flurry of stories in Western media suggesting that Russia may be preparing to militarily attack the Baltic states, including in the U.S. publication the Wall Street Journal and the UK's The Telegraph.

Since March, Ukrainian attack drones aiming for Russia's oil facilities on the Baltic Sea have breached Baltic and Finnish airspace, likely knocked off course by GPS jamming. Moscow has claimed the countries are allowing Ukraine to use their airspace to attack Russia, and threatened retaliation.

Security expert and former Foreign Intelligence Service chief Rainer Saks told ERR Russia has made similar claims in the past and that Western media narratives provide help.

"They are trying to diffuse the blame. The more general reason why this is being done is that we have seen Western media talking, for several years now, about Russia being about to attack the Baltic states. This has created a context for the kind of information operations Russia practices. I think that is the main reason," Saks said.

Reversing the narrative

In recent days, Russia has threatened to launch massive attacks on Kyiv and called for foreigners to leave the Ukrainian capital. A large-scale attack took place over the weekend, but Saks said big missile and drone attacks have taken place since 2022.

He said Russia is trying to seize the strategic initiative through such messages.

"Russia has had a problem maintaining the initiative on the strategic level. This emerged in the second half of 2022, and there have been a few shorter moments as well, such as during Prigozhin's mutiny. Even now, such a situation has developed because Ukraine halted Russia's offensive quite some time ago. But Ukraine has also increasingly carried out air attacks inside Russia. The latest attack on Moscow connected to May 9, where Ukraine in turn conducted a very strong information operation directed at Russia with threats to attack something in Russia during the parade ... This is now the point where Russia is trying to reverse that narrative so that the strategic initiative would once again clearly be in their hands," Saks said.

Saks also stressed that Russia regularly attacks Kyiv.

"You can see that there are longer pauses and shorter pauses, but the Ukrainian capital has been attacked constantly. In a situation where you have not actually developed any new capability, how can you amplify this in the strategic picture? You have to add some additional informational nuance. This pressure on ambassadors to leave is what guarantees media coverage," Saks said.

"Russia has not developed any new capability to carry out these missile attacks. This is an information operation, an attempt to amplify it to firmly regain the strategic initiative," he added.

Uncritical media coverage

Saks said the Western media often picks up Russian messaging and social media posts in its reports, which is why fairly uncritical coverage of the situation often appears.

"Russia has worked for years to create this kind of situation and continues to do so. It is not that simple. The issue is not social media posts, but we see that it is very multidimensional," he explained.

"First there are so-called opinion leaders who express completely insane things. This spreads through the media, discussions emerge around it in Western media, and then some members of parliament come along and repeat the same thing in a somewhat more moderate form. Finally, political leaders have the opportunity to choose the moment when they make their post, which actually amounts to a statement. If it is a president, then it carries very significant political weight. The information space has been prepared by journalism — it enters a context that has already been created, and that makes it powerful. Otherwise, out of nowhere, it probably would not have such an effect. That is how major narratives emerge and become entrenched. Indeed, Western media in this sense sometimes works along with it uncritically — that is its weakness," Saks said.

Strategic information war

However, sometimes the domestic media also muddy the waters.

In March, reports of a so-called Narva People's Republic spread on social media and in Western media outlets alike. It was also reported by the Estonian media.

"That was also our own doing; nobody in Russia created that," Saks commented.

"Of course, information flows that last for a longer period create opportunities for them to be exploited. That is why these things are occasionally done, so that the Baltic topic is once again in the spotlight. But to claim that some kind of major information war is being waged every day ... In one sense, it is happening on a global level, but I do not see anything aimed solely at the Baltic states. This is a general strategic information war taking place in the context of the war in Ukraine, involving a much larger part of the world than just the Baltic states," he said.

Threat assessment unchanged

Saks said there are no concrete signs that Russia is preparing to expand its military operations.

"The fact is that at the moment there are no signs that Russia is directly preparing for war. At the same time, they have always regarded confrontation with NATO as a major challenge for themselves and have generally prepared for it. But at present, they are tied down by military operations in Ukraine. I would argue that right now, there is no information indicating that they are preparing to somehow expand the area of military operations. There is no factual basis behind it," he outlined.

The Foreign Intelligence Service's threat assessment has not changed.

"Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year. To preserve this situation in the more distant future as well, we must continue deterring Russia and investing in our defense capabilities," the agency's spokesperson told ERR on Wednesday.

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