Toomas Hanso, a junior researcher at the Estonian think-tank International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), noted that over the past six months, leaders of all permanent members of the UN Security Council have visited China, including President of France Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

This demonstrates a strong worldwide desire at the highest political level to engage with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Hanso said Trump and China are already interacting on equal terms. Following the American leader's visit, the relationship was characterized as one of constructive strategic stability, with Trump describing China as part of a G-2.

Regarding Russia, Hanso noted that Moscow is highly dependent on Beijing. China accounts for roughly one-third of Russia's foreign trade, while Russia makes up only about 5 percent of China's trade. Additionally, the Chinese do not underestimate history, remembering that Russia annexed over 1.5 million square kilometers of Chinese territory during the Qing dynasty.

This dynamic is visible in China's reluctance to sign the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline agreement. While China logically wants secure pipeline energy to avoid vulnerable global sea routes, its massive expansion of renewables gives it many options. Last year alone, China added 430 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity, roughly 100 times Estonia's entire capacity of 3.5 gigawatts. Consequently, China is in no hurry to finalize a deal with Russia.

Despite this imbalance, Hanso does not expect China to abandon Russia anytime soon. Both nations share the strategic objective of ending American hegemony and establishing a multipolar world. If that goal changes, a shift in their relationship might become possible in the future.

On the issue of Taiwan, Hanso pointed out that statements from Trump align with the long-standing U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, as he has not explicitly said whether he would defend the island. However, Taiwanese citizens are concerned because Trump noted that an intervention would not be a pleasant course of action for the United States and that Taiwan is 9,500 miles away.

These remarks suggest a potential step back from previous American positions, Hanso said. Other U.S. allies in the region, such as Japan, the Philippines and South Korea, may be even more concerned, as it signals that American alliances could become bargaining chips.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and X and never miss an update!