The analysis shows that most of Europe's farmland is located close to urban centers, limiting the policy's impact on truly peripheral regions.

Historically, settlements developed where soil was best suited for cultivation. As a result, fields typically surround today's major cities and densely populated areas. This dataset challenges the common image of farms located far inland or deep in forests. At the same time, the EU's agricultural policy consumes about a third of the EU budget, and from this same pool broader regional development and rural life are also supported.

Despite major investments, the impact of these subsidies on employment and where people choose to live is sometimes hard to detect. Economist Jüri Lillemets of the Estonian University of Life Sciences analyzed the effectiveness of this policy in his doctoral research together with colleagues.

"I started to wonder why this is the case and arrived at the question of whether agricultural policy can even have such an impact. Do people actually live near farmland, and are rural areas really that closely tied to agriculture?" Lillemets recalled on ERR broadcast.

For the first time, the researchers combined data on the distribution of the entire European population with land-use data, establishing spatial relationships with a precision of 10 × 10 meters. Previously, no one had compared population locations and farmland in such detail.

Most Europeans live within few kilometres of farmland

The data revealed a clear geographic pattern. "Eighty-five percent of Europeans live within one kilometer of farmland, 90 percent within two kilometers, and almost all Europeans live within five kilometers of farmland," Lillemets said. Housing and fields are especially close to each other in mountainous regions and in Scandinavia's harsher climate, where land suitable for cultivation is scarce.

Estonia stands out from the broader European picture, as settlements here are located slightly farther from fields. About 71 percent of Estonia's population lives within one kilometer of farmland. The main reason is population concentration in Tallinn and Harju County, where intensive agriculture is less common. "In a way, this challenges the myth that Estonians are a strongly rural people—at least in terms of proximity to agricultural land," the researcher noted.

Next, the research group flipped the perspective and measured farmland's distance from cities. The results showed that the greatest share of cultivated land lies five to ten kilometers from settlements. Lillemets explained: "In reality, farmland is located near settlements and is characteristic not so much of cities themselves but of their surrounding areas."

The spatial arrangement of settlements and food production follows a logic dating back to the 16th century. Centuries ago, people moved to areas where soils produced the best yields. "What is somewhat surprising is that although people today no longer need close physical proximity to farmland and agriculture can operate without intensive human labor, the spatial relationship has remained the same. There's no reason to assume it will change," the economist said.

Experts call for overhaul of subsidy system

However, this historically shaped arrangement creates challenges for achieving the goals of the EU's CAP. The policy is intended primarily to ensure the vitality of remote rural regions, yet in practice funding does not reach them. Lillemets stated: "The research shows that farmland-based subsidies in fact do not extend far beyond cities."

To improve the situation, researchers recommend restructuring the subsidy system. Remote areas in Europe are primarily characterized by small-scale production. Supporting environmentally friendly, less intensive farming would therefore direct funds to where they are most needed.

In Estonia, the close proximity of settlements and fields raises concerns due to urban sprawl. In recent decades, developers have often built new residential areas on land well suited for agriculture. Lillemets added: "For Estonia, it is significant that the most suitable and fertile land for production is located near cities—meaning that urban sprawl is occurring at the expense of the most fertile farmland."

Food production pushed away from cities

In the future, expanding cities may push food production farther away from densely populated areas. But soils farther out are often less fertile, which can raise food prices and reduce productivity. Universities in Estonia are now launching separate studies to map precisely the extent and characteristics of land that has fallen out of use.

In addition to economic factors, attractive landscapes also draw people out of cities. Open fields provide mental well-being, and younger people prefer more diverse living environments. The researcher clarified: "It has been found that proximity to farmland increases property values within a few hundred meters due to open landscapes. At the same time, factors like odor and noise from livestock farming, which reduce residential attractiveness, have an impact over a much larger area."

Thus, proximity to settlements and labor markets continues to keep Europeans closely connected to farmland. Even if people are free to choose where they live, practical considerations limit large-scale migration. According to Lillemets, policies supporting rural life should in the future take much greater account of historically shaped settlement patterns.