U.S. Secretary for War Pete Hegseth's last-minute decision to cancel the deployment of 4,000 troops to Poland caught Pentagon staff and European allies by surprise, POLITICO reported.

The United States has been weighing a redeployment of its forces in Europe for some time, and the cancellation of the rotation in Poland may be part of that process, though some have suggested that part of the 5,000 U.S. troops slated for withdrawal from neighboring Germany earlier this month could instead be redeployed to Poland.

Developments in Poland will affect the entire eastern flank, that much is certain, Pevkur said. "How exactly remains a question for the coming days and weeks. We are also trying to gain greater clarity at the military level and have been in contact with various partners throughout the day. But the precise impact on the security of the eastern border, and how this relates to President Trump's statement about withdrawing 5,000 soldiers from Germany, will become clear in the coming weeks."

Earlier political decisions are now beginning to reach the military level, he noted. Calculations and planning appear to still be underway, and the various roles of U.S. troops in Europe also have to be taken into account.

This mixed messaging has already sparked speculation that the troops leaving Germany could be redeployed to Poland, or that it was cost-cutting measures which led to the reshuffling in Poland instead.

"In principle, of course, stopping a rotation is much cheaper for the United States than taking back troops from Europe that are permanently stationed here. It also has less of an impact on implementing NATO's defense plans," former NATO chief spokesperson Oana Lungescu told "Aktuaalne kaamera."

Kristi Raik, director of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), also expressed surprise that Poland appears to have been left out in the cold, given it is one of the highest defense spenders as a proportion of GDP of all the NATO allies.

"We had assumed that those allies who have invested heavily in their own defense, above all Poland and the Baltic states, would be treated differently by the U.S. and would not face such negative surprises. Secondly, we still hoped that any reduction in the U.S. presence would take place in a planned, gradual, and cooperative manner," Raik said.

The changes are also sure to affect the operations of United States European Command (EUCOM), which had been counting on the arrival of an armored brigade.

"They have been preparing for a year, that this brigade was coming in, and it was going to be part of the whole. And so they would have made decisions about exercises, who goes where, logistics – all the preparations. Now that's a real capability: An armored brigade combat team's huge capability off the table," said former commander of United States Army Europe Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Ben Hodges.

Poland's Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said Friday changes were underway within the U.S. administration, including concerning the Pentagon and American military forces stationed in Europe. While these shifts could affect troop composition or deployment locations across the continent, the U.S. military presence in Poland itself was not expected to decrease significantly.

U.S. personnel based in Estonia are centered on Camp Reedo in Võru, South Estonia.

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