According to Mark Gortfelder, statistics do not support the media narrative of an epidemic of loneliness in which young people are glued to their smart devices and afraid to interact with others. "If we look at the actual data, that is not really the case — people are still forming partnerships at the same age and at the same rate as before," he explained. According to the demographer, the problem lies elsewhere: even if people move in together, it no longer automatically means they will start a family.

In Gortfelder's view, a significant shift has taken place in relationship dynamics, with cohabitation and having children becoming increasingly disconnected over time. While in previous decades sharing a home typically meant a first child would soon follow, today that interim period can stretch on for years.

During that time, however, relationships come under strain, as the likelihood of breakups has increased over time, Gortfelder said. In his assessment, this is a critical factor from the standpoint of birth rates, since the vast majority of children are still born into stable relationships.

"Most children are born and raised in stable partnerships, so instability in relationships clearly has a negative impact on birth rates," the researcher said.

Changing cast of mind cause of childlessness

Gortfelder noted that children do not go unborn solely because people do not want them, but also because suitable circumstances are lacking. Studies show that women often cite the absence of a relationship or an unsuitable partner as the reason for remaining childless.

But beyond partner choice, both societal expectations and internal norms have also changed.

Gortfelder explained that as recently as the beginning of this century, parenthood was widely seen as a central and self-evident role of adulthood. "Today, that is no longer the case. It means there is a more calculating mindset: when having children is no longer viewed as a self-evident norm, people begin to question whether all the external conditions or their personal lives are really good enough for having a child," he said. The demographer added that in such circumstances, it is always possible to find reasons why having children may still not seem appropriate.

The welfare state as a pyramid scheme

Mark Gortfelder warned that this shift in values and the resulting decline in birth rates threaten the sustainability of the welfare state. He compared the current social system to a pyramid scheme that depends on new generations entering the system in order to function.

"When having children becomes a purely personal and calculated choice, it becomes very difficult for the state to intervene," Gortfelder said. According to him, it is important to understand that even small changes in birth rates today — whether it is 1.3 or 1.6 children per woman — will, by the end of the century, affect whether there are still 1 million Estonians or only a few hundred thousand.

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