Estonian presidential vote could jump straight to Electoral College
There is a possibility that, this fall, no presidential candidate will be nominated in the Estonian parliament, in which case the election would most likely move directly to the Electoral College.
Under the Presidential Election Act, the president must be elected between 60 and 10 days before the incumbent's term ends. Since Estonian president Alar Karis's term expires October 11, the new president must be chosen by October 1.
Riigikogu Speaker Lauri Hussar previously announced the first parliamentary voting rounds for September 2 and 3. National Electoral Committee member Olari Koppel confirmed to ERR that if parliament fails to elect a president, the Electoral College will convene September 26.
A two-thirds majority of at least 68 votes is required in the Riigikogu. Recent statements indicate Karis's continued presidency is supported by Isamaa and the Center Party, which hold 11 and eight seats respectively — a total of 19 votes.
The Reform Party currently holds 39 seats in parliament, Eesti 200 has 13 and the Social Democrats have 14.
Although Prime Minister Kristen Michal has said the Reform Party would not block Karis, it has not expressed public support. The same applies to the Social Democrats and Eesti 200.
In March, Eesti 200 parliamentary group leader Toomas Uibo said the party wanted more time to review potential candidates, while Social Democratic Party leader Lauri Läänemets said they did not want to pressure anyone yet.
Running only in the Electoral College would not be a precedent
It appears Karis cannot yet count on parliamentary election. The situation would change in the Electoral College, where local government representatives also vote.
Greater influence there could lie with Isamaa and the Center Party, both of which openly support the incumbent and performed strongly in local elections.
This may mean Karis will not submit his candidacy in the Riigikogu at all, relying instead on his supporters in the Electoral College.
This would not be unprecedented. In the 2006 election, then-President Arnold Rüütel likewise chose not to run in the Riigikogu, entering the race only in the Electoral College.
At that time, one candidate was nominated per parliamentary round — Ene Ergma in the first, and Toomas Hendrik Ilves in the second and third. Ergma received 65 votes and Ilves 64 in both rounds, sending the election to the Electoral College where Ilves defeated Rüütel 174 to 162.
Failure to nominate would move elections to Electoral College
There is currently no publicly known candidate who wishes to run in the Riigikogu and is acceptable to political parties, meaning no clear parliamentary option exists.
It is unclear what would happen if the Riigikogu nominates no one. Electoral service head Arne Koitmäe said this has never happened before, but he believes the election process would simply move forward.
"It's conceivable that the results of a round would be nullified and the process would move on to the Electoral College. You can't drag this out indefinitely," Koitmäe said.
Ten years ago, political parties failed to elect a president on the first attempt in both parliament and the Electoral College. The election returned to the Riigikogu, where Kersti Kaljulaid was eventually elected as a cross-party candidate.
Because the process took so long, questions arose regarding what would happen if a president could not be elected on time.
It was concluded the incumbent would remain in office until a new president was chosen. Koitmäe said the situation would be no different today, meaning Karis would remain in office until a successor is elected.
Kaljulaid: Such a situation will not arise
Riigikogu and National Defense Committee member Raimond Kaljulaid said it does not make sense to discuss the possibility of zero nominations. In such a case, he said, one party would simply put forward its own candidate to gain media exposure.
The right to nominate a candidate requires the initiative of at least one-fifth of the Riigikogu, or 21 MPs.
Kaljulaid said the remaining half year is a long time in the context of a presidential election, making it too early for nominations.
The politician said it would benefit all parties to take time to cool down and search for a consensus candidate.
Confusion surrounding the presidency would harm both the governing Reform Party and major opposition parties such as Isamaa and the Center Party, Kaljulaid said. However, he does not expect the situation to resolve without conflict.
The Electoral College consists of 208 members, made up of 101 MPs and 107 local government representatives.
Under the Presidential Election Act, a municipality with up to 10,000 eligible Estonian citizens may send one representative to the Electoral College. A municipality with 10,001 to 50,000 voters sends two, one with 50,001 to 100,000 sends four, and a municipality with more than 100,000 eligible Estonian citizens sends 10 representatives.
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Editor: Argo Ideon
