Estonia's presidents are elected by the Riigikogu, and this time around an additional dimension is brought by the fact that Riigikogu elections take place in spring 2027, just a few months after autumn's presidential elections.

Two opposition parties, Isamaa and Center, have pledged to back Alar Karis for a second term. This would not be enough votes even if the Reform Party, which has not clearly stated its intentions yet, were included: That would bring 52 MPs plus potentially another five unaffiliated MPs, where a minimum of 68 votes are needed.

This makes the coalition Eesti 200 (13 seats) and the opposition SDE (9 seats) key.

The other opposition party, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), has said it would oppose the re-election of Karis: The party had opposed his election in 2021.

ERR spoke to party leaders and party Riigikogu faction chairs, who are often not one and the same person.

Prime Minister and Reform Party leader Kristen Michal told "Esimene stuudio" Tuesday that Reform Party would not stand in the way of re-electing the current president Alar Karis.

"I generally still maintain that I support President Karis, and I think Karis can count on that, but he still has to announce or decide on his candidacy," said Michal, adding: "If he has the support of the parties, then his election will certainly not be held back by the Reform Party."

The Reform Party: we still need to make final decisions

"I generally still maintain that I support President Karis, and I think Karis can count on that, but he still has to announce or decide on his candidacy," said the prime minister, adding: "If he has the support of the parties, then his election will certainly not be held back by the Reform Party."

Reform's Riigikogu faction leader Õnne Pillak meanwhile demurred on whether the party's MPs would back a second Karis presidential bid.

"We have not yet discussed any candidate in that way, within the faction. We still need to make our final decisions internally. But this is not really news — we have said before that Alar Karis is certainly a strong candidate, and if there are 68 votes in parliament, then his election as president will not be blocked by us," Pillak said.

Eesti 200 wants wider selection of candidates

Eesti 200's faction leader Toomas Uibo said it would be good for Estonia if there was a choice of presidential candidates: When Alar Karis ran in 2021, he did so unopposed.

"I cannot say what is happening with the Reform Party. But Eesti 200 has stated that we certainly do not rule out Alar Karis in any way, though we want to see more than one candidate for the office of President of Estonia," said Uibo. "We have not discussed one single name at all. Everything that has appeared in the media is just speculation, people's opinions — we will get there in time," he added.

"I agree that this is a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation right now. On the one hand, the [incumbent] president must declare whether he will run, but on the other, people in this chamber do not want to tie themselves directly to one single name," Uibo continued.

According to Uibo, preparatory negotiations are currently taking place with the Riigikogu council of elders, which he sits on together with the other five faction leaders, the Riigikogu speaker and the two deputy speakers. "Procedurally, we will at some point reach that stage where we begin discussing names. And by then Eesti 200 might also have its own candidate to propose, but today we have not discussed this."

Eesti 200 leader Kristina Kallas on Wednesday declined to state the party's position on the presidential election.

SDE: Karis should not be put under pressure so early

Lauri Läänemets, who is the party's overall leader and who has been in the media this week over controversy on the referencing of a top diplomat in the context of a presidential bid, said that the Reform Party's support for Karis was far from certain. At the same time, he noted his party would not stand in the way of Karis's re-election.

"The Social Democrats have supported Alar Karis once in a presidential election, and we have said that this issue certainly will not be blocked by us. When the Reform Party eventually shapes its position, it will be possible to say how the presidential election might end," Läänemets said.

"Ultimately, it is possible to agree on a candidate with the broadest possible common ground. /.../ At the moment, we are very far from knowing who that candidate might be," he added.

Läänemets had earlier in the week said that Reform holds most of the cards as the largest party by Riigikogu seats, with 37 seats.

SDE's Tanel Kiik had said Reform Party Secretary General Kristo Enn Vaga sent him a message suggesting three possible presidential candidates — Marina Kaljurand, an SDE MEP, Riina Kionka, the top diplomat referred to above, plus Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise — and proposed that SDE present these names publicly.

Vaga denied this version of events, saying the exchange was only about discussing strong female candidates and that it would not make sense for the Reform Party to suggest Kaljurand, as an SDE member, to the SDE – her own party and which had already sought support for her in January.

Reinsalu: Reform Party wants SDE in government

Urmas Reinsalu, leader of the opposition Isamaa, commented on social media Wednesday that floating Marina Kaljurand's potential candidacy was an attempt on the part of the Reform Party to bring SDE back into office.

"I believe this discussion was related to the Reform Party's effort to include the Social Democrats in the government. This, in turn, was driven by Kristen Michal's fear of soon finding himself leading a minority government that would not survive a vote of no confidence. The Social Democrats were apparently lured with the prospect of a presidential position that could potentially belong to them," Reinsalu said.

SDE was in office with Reform and Eesti 200 until it was expelled from the coalition just over a year ago.

Reinsalu noted Reform members considered it necessary just two hours after a council of elders meeting on February 26 to demand that SDE present their candidate, over the current president.

"The Social Democrats were simply expected to put forward a shadow candidate who would serve as a 'club' to neutralize Alar Karis, so that in the next phase they could move on to a new agenda. From the Reform Party's perspective, it would have been the Social Democrats' task to block possible support for Alar Karis. The Reform Party viewed this as an element of the operation to bring the Social Democrats into the government. I was aware of the Reform Party's request for the Social Democrats to put forward a shadow candidate already on the evening of February 26, which is why I can say that Lauri Läänemets' claims now seem plausible. For their own political reasons, the Social Democrats did not go along with this deal, and it was exposed within a matter of hours at the beginning of the week," Reinsalu said.

Läänemets subsequently apologized to Kionka and Karis, on the grounds that the two had suffered as a result of Reform's "games."

The presidential election process will get underway in late summer. If Riigikogu ballots prove inconclusive, the process moves to a regional electoral college, which convenes in Tallinn and includes representatives of local government.
Neither Karis nor anyone else has stated an intention to run.

Toomas Hendrik Ilves, president 2006–2016, has informally named two other top diplomats, Mati Maasikas and Jüri Luik, in addition to Kionka, at a time when he said clear leadership on foreign policy is desperately needed.

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