Has the Orthodox Easter ceasefire held?

According to Ukrainian sources, it has not. They have reported more than 2,000 violations of the ceasefire by the Russian Federation. As President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said, if the ceasefire is violated, Ukraine will respond in kind. However, at least so far, Ukraine has not reported attacks by Russia targeting civilian infrastructure or cities.

In other words, the war is unfortunately continuing. Is the overall situation still the same — that the Russians are advancing although their intensity may not be as high right now?

Broadly speaking, we are still in a static war of attrition where neither side has achieved a decisive advantage and is unlikely to do so in the near term. However, over the past three to four months, there have been some positive developments on Ukraine's side. They have been able to stabilize the front line, in some sectors even seize the initiative and liberate occupied territory — on the southern front, roughly 500 square kilometers.

To break that down a bit — what exactly accounts for Ukraine's success? How have they managed to slow the advancing momentum and regain territory?

It's a combination of several factors. One of the most important is that Ukraine has been able to conduct a highly effective medium-range deep-strike campaign, targeting enemy assets up to 100 kilometers behind the front line.

These targets are mainly logistics hubs, fuel depots, ammunition storage sites and troop assembly areas — essentially preventing forces from reaching the front and eliminating them in staging zones.

In addition, traditional air defense has been very effective over the past three months. Roughly 90 different air defense systems have been destroyed, ranging from tactical-level systems to strategic early-warning radars — on average, about one system per day.

Command posts have also been targeted. Another key point is that Ukraine has focused on the enemy's drone infrastructure — from launch platforms to relay stations. This has prevented the Russian Federation from maintaining large numbers of drones in the air in this sector of the front. We are talking about 1,000 or more drones whose operations have been disrupted as a result.

There are further aspects as well. On April 8, Colonel Palisa, deputy head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, said in an interview that Ukraine has achieved both a quantitative and qualitative advantage over Russia in drone warfare. For example, in attack drones, the ratio at the front is now 1.3 to 1 in Ukraine's favor.

Ukraine has also improved its drones technologically to make them more resistant to enemy electronic warfare. About one-third of Ukrainian drones use fiber-optic cables to ensure resistance to electronic interference. By comparison, roughly 25 percent or about a quarter of Russian drones use fiber-optic cables. There are also other technological advancements that make Ukrainian drones more effective in this electronic warfare environment.

As a result, higher personnel losses have been inflicted on the enemy. For example, in the first quarter in Donetsk Oblast, the enemy suffered approximately 320 soldiers in losses for every square kilometer captured. By comparison, in 2025 across the entire front, Russian losses per square kilometer were about 120 personnel and on the Pokrovsk axis — one of the most intense sectors — it was about 160.

This shows that Russian personnel losses have increased significantly. Over the past three to four months, these losses have exceeded recruitment numbers.

Additionally, on April 9, Ukraine's commander-in-chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said in an interview with Ukrainian media that Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces — a separate branch of the armed forces — have been contributing very effectively to this medium-range deep-strike campaign. He noted that in March alone, they carried out more than 11,000 combat missions per day.

More than 150,000 confirmed targets were struck in March alone — a 50 percent increase compared to February. Ukraine has also made major advances in interceptor drone technology. According to the commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, interceptor drones destroyed approximately 3,000 enemy drones in January, 4,000 in February and 8,000 in March.

All of these factors combined have contributed to Ukraine's success and the positive developments on the battlefield.

This also means that Ukrainians can see very well up to 100 kilometers behind the front. Do they again have the ability to monitor what's happening there in real time via satellites, enabling them to carry out these strikes?

Absolutely. When we talk about deep battle, it's not just about strike drones — it also includes various sensors and surveillance tools, including reconnaissance drones. Across the entire drone spectrum, Ukraine has currently achieved a certain advantage over the Russian Federation.

Of course, it is important to maintain and further develop this edge, as the Russian Federation is also working very intensively in the field of unmanned systems. General Oleksandr Syrskyi has noted that there are currently around 100,000 personnel involved in unmanned systems within Russia's armed forces, with a goal of reaching 165,000 by the end of the year. In other words, Russia is also developing this domain very rapidly and it is crucial for Ukraine to preserve its advantage.

Does this also mean that the Russian spring offensive that had been forecast has effectively been repelled or perhaps has not materialized at all?

You could say that, yes. Ukraine has been able to stabilize the front, which has also meant preventing a traditional spring offensive. One example is in the direction of Hulyaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast — Ukraine's seizure of the initiative and its offensive operations there may have been a preemptive move against a potential Russian spring offensive in that sector.

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