The agency's 2025-2026 yearbook, published on Monday, says Russia – referred to as the "adversary" – "seeks to undermine social cohesion and alliances and to erode trust in the state."

It says attempts were made "repeatedly" to do this in Estonia last year and "similar attacks are likely to continue."

The yearbook says Russia is increasingly using social media to spread its narratives and propaganda because sanctions placed on the country after it launched the full-scale war in Ukraine have "curtailed" its "hostile activities," including spreading propaganda.

Once published online, the narratives and propaganda are "amplified by artificial intelligence and algorithm-driven information flows."

"Efforts focus on persuading individuals to present hostile narratives as their own, because propaganda is more effective when disseminated by local voices," the ISS writes.

"Last year, we repeatedly saw attempts to destabilize Estonia's internal stability through simple and inexpensive social media campaigns – from bomb threats to attacks targeting the local community in Narva, both on Telegram."

If these campaigns make it off social media and into the media, this is seen as a victory.

"For the adversary, having such campaigns amplified by mainstream media is considered a success, as it enhances the credibility and reach of hostile messages," the agency writes.

Narratives and AI

The main narrative Russia wants to promote and amplify is that Russians are victims and the West is fascist, the ISS says.

"These narratives are used to justify the ongoing war against Ukraine and to discredit European countries and realistic interpretations of history," the yearbook says.

It uses AI in several ways to do this.

"Artificial intelligence is used to translate and amplify propaganda narratives automatically. By training language models, the aim is to saturate the internet with content aligned with Kremlin positions, ensuring that the growing user base of chatbots receives responses consistent with those narratives," it says.

As Russia is now seeking to control the internet, Russian information space and steer its citizens towards state-developed apps, they are more likely to receive "increasingly censored news, distorted information, and manipulated narratives."

"These include claims of alleged persecution of Russians in Estonia, assertions that Western rearmament is aimed at attacking Russia and misrepresentations of Russian military operations on the Ukrainian front," the agency says.

State television is still important for older viewers who do not use social media.

"Despite declining viewership, Russian state television maintains its influence, as older Russian-speaking audiences continue to shape attitudes within their communities," the ISS writes.

--

Follow ERR News on Facebook and Twitter and never miss an update!