U.S. President Donald Trump continues to criticize NATO. The reason is that allies did not rush to the United States' aid in attacking Iran. NATO's future is "very dark," Trump has said. Most recently, he expressed his frustration during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Key bases

There has been much discussion about the possibility that Donald Trump could withdraw the United States from NATO. However, it is likely that matters will not go that far. First, the decision is not solely within the president's power (it requires congressional approval); second, it would be extremely damaging to the United States' global role in the world.

Under such a scenario, the United States would have to close its bases in Europe — more than 30 in total — and withdraw its troops, numbering roughly 85,000 (both figures as of early 2025). This, in turn, would effectively eliminate any possibility of undertaking military action in places such as the Middle East, for which bases located in Europe are critically important. A couple of aircraft carriers are not enough.

What Trump can do, however, is punish those countries he believes have betrayed the United States. For example, Spain, which did not allow U.S. and Israeli aircraft to use its airspace. Or Italy, which temporarily blocked the use of a base in Sicily. Or France, which allowed U.S. aircraft to use a base in the south of the country only on the condition that they would not participate in military operations against Iran.

According to U.S. media reports, Trump may close a base in either Spain or Germany and relocate it to countries that have supported the United States and maintain high defense spending. Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Greece have been mentioned. There has also been talk of reducing U.S. forces in Europe. This would not be the first time. It is worth recalling that even during Democrat Barack Obama's presidency, some troops were moved from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region and then brought back after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. During Trump's first term, 12,000 troops were withdrawn, only for Joe Biden to decide to return them.

NATO reform now inescapable

What is clear is that NATO would have faced restructuring even without the war in Iran. Donald Trump's claims that NATO is a paper tiger that Russian leader Vladimir Putin does not fear stem from the fact that Europeans do not spend enough on defense and instead rely on U.S. security guarantees.

NATO's latest report states that all member states now meet the obligation to spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense. Unfortunately, this pledge was already made in 2014 and by now that benchmark has become outdated. The real target is 5 percent and only Poland, at 4.3 percent, comes close. Rumor has it Trump is planning NATO reform in such a way that countries failing to meet the 5 percent threshold would be sidelined in the decision-making process.

In hindsight, one can always ask what allies should have done in the context of the Iran war. Providing assistance would have been complicated, since the United States did not request any. However, it was not particularly wise for some countries to deny the use of their airspace or bases. Nor were statements along the lines of "this is not our war" helpful.

Before responding forcefully to the United States, one must be capable of doing so. Europe is not ready to forgo U.S. security guarantees. Hopefully, the dispute shaking NATO will help Europeans finally understand that they cannot rely indefinitely on the American umbrella and must stand on their own feet.

By July, we should have a clearer picture of NATO's future. Another NATO summit is expected to take place in Ankara. That is, "expected" — because who knows what might happen before then.

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